Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 37

Date: 14 November 2025, Friday

Location: Leonidas Sodre de Castro (Belem)

Referee: Gomes Stefano A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Paysandu		Amazonas

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.5	2.1	Watch
	3.25	3.35	2.1
	3.25	3.42	2.23
	2.11	3.27	3.28	Watch
	3.26	3.34	2.14	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.01 ↑ (2.11)	3.38 ↑ (3.27)	2.37 ↓ (3.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paysandu
31.6%

Draw
28.2%

Amazonas
40.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.7%

28.2%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.7%

28.2%

28.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paysandu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Paysandu's form might have worsened.

Amazonas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Amazonas's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (+12.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Paysandu, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Amazonas than the current prediction. (-12.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Amazonas, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	10%	60%

Paysandu - Amazonas Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Paysandu will win (votes: 3 - 30%). Amazonas will win (votes: 6 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Amazonas: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Paysandu (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Amazonas (1.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - Paysandu (7.14) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Paysandu (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Amazonas (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Gabriel Mesquita (G) 2. Edilson 3. Quintana Y. (C) 5. Novillo J. 16. Reverson 39. Goncalves P. 8. Andre Lima 26. Wendel 30. Marcelinho 11. Marlon Douglas 99. Vinicius Faria	33. Renan (G) 26. Gabriel Domingos 14. Ivan Alvarino 3. Leo Coelho 6. Fabiano (C) 5. Vasquez L. 10. Rafael Tavares 21. Erick Varao 29. Torres D. 19. Henrique Almeida 20. William Barbio
Substitutes
21. Bryan Borges 38. Carlos Eduardo 98. Denilson 18. Edinho 31. Iago Hass (G) 22. Joao Marcos 94. Kaua Hinkel 34. Lucca Carvalho 19. Petterson Novaes 43. Ramon Vinicius	15. Castrillon N. 35. Digao 17. Guilherme Xavier 1. Joao Lopes (G) 8. Kiko 22. Linares N. 9. Luan Silva 55. Philippe Guimaraes 93. Rafael Vitor 77. Robertinho 11. Torres J.
Coaches
Alvares I.	Lana A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Erick Varao 🟨,
29', Erick Varao 🟥,
42', Marlon Douglas 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Gabriel Domingos ↓, Guilherme Xavier ↑,
46', Marcelinho ↓, Petterson Novaes ↑,
46', Vinicius Faria ↓, Carlos Eduardo ↑,
46', Reverson ↓, Bryan Borges ↑,
52', Novillo J. 🟨,
55', Rafael Tavares ↓, Luan Silva ↑,
59', Andre Lima 🟨,
62', Quintana Y. ↓, Lucca Carvalho ↑,
65', Robertinho 🟨,
71', William Barbio ↓, Castrillon N. ↑,
71', Robertinho ↓, Torres J. ↑,
72', 1 - 0, Andre Lima ⚽,
77', 1 - 1, Torres D. ⚽,
78', 1 - 2, Torres J. ⚽, Henrique Almeida (A),
80', Torres D. 🟨,
83', Wendel 🟨,
84', Marlon Douglas ↓, Denilson ↑,
90+1', Fabiano 🟨,
90+2', Vasquez L. 🟨,
90+2', 2 - 2, Bryan Borges ⚽,
90+5', Bryan Borges (Pen),

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

Paysandu is Relegated to Serie C (First stage )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paysandu won 1.

Paysandu is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Amazonas's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Paysandu: Denner (Injury) Dudu Vieira (Inactive) Leandro Vilela (Injury) Matheus Vargas (Injury) Ronaldo Henrique (Inactive) Rossi (Inactive) Thiago Heleno (Inactive)

There will not play in Amazonas: Alyson (Inactive) Dener (Inactive) Fernando Neto (Inactive) Gabriel Novaes (Inactive) Henrique Almeida (Yellow Cards) Iverton (Inactive) Thomas Luciano (Inactive)

There are questionable in Paysandu: Bryan Borges (Injury) Diogo Oliveira (Injury) Matheus Nogueira (Injury) Petterson Novaes (Inactive)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Paysandu won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Paysandu won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paysandu PA
Brazilian Serie B
09.11.25	Paysandu - Coritiba	1:2 ✺
31.10.25	Atlético Goianiense - Paysandu	2:1 ✺
25.10.25	Paysandu - Avaí	1:2 ✺
20.10.25	Ferroviária - Paysandu	2:2 ✺
14.10.25	Paysandu - Remo	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLLTL
- Amazonas FC
Brazilian Serie B
10.11.25	Botafogo SP - Amazonas	1:0 ✺
02.11.25	Amazonas - Cuiabá	2:0 ✺
27.10.25	Athletico Paranaense - Amazonas	2:0 ✺
17.10.25	Amazonas - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:0 ✺
12.10.25	Vila Nova - Amazonas	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
23.07.25	Amazonas - Paysandu	1:1
05.09.24	Paysandu - Amazonas	0:1
18.05.24	Amazonas - Paysandu	1:1
Brazilian Serie C
01.10.23	Paysandu - Amazonas	1:2
09.09.23	Amazonas - Paysandu	0:1
08.07.23	Amazonas - Paysandu	1:2

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