Match Info

Serie C - Second stage - Round 5

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	SportyNet


	Paysandu		Ferroviária

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.10	3.20	3.00
	2.30	3.10	2.85	Watch
	2.18	3.27	3.24
	2.18	3.32	3.23	Watch
	2.13	3.20	3.20
	2.20	3.25	3.25
	2.13	3.15	3.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↑ (2.04)	3.21 ↑ (3.2)	3.11 ↓ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 7.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paysandu
42.1%

Draw
28.5%

Ferroviária
29.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.3%

28.3%

27.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.1%

28.8%

26.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paysandu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Ferroviária has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Paysandu - Ferroviária Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jean Drosny (G) 14. Bruno Bispo 8. Caio Mello 2. Edilson 9. Italo Carvalho 75. Kleiton Pego 22. Lucas Rodrigues 10. Marcinho (C) 80. Pablo 44. Pedro Carrerette 39. Pedro Henrique	31. Denis Junior (G) 10. Albano (C) 8. Alencar 44. Carlao 29. Eduardo Oliveira 15. Fernandinho 99. Maranhao 18. Rafael Carillho 19. Thiago M. 11. Vitor Barreto 40. Ze Vitor
Substitutes
23. Brian Macapa 15. Castro 18. Eduardo 3. Gustavo Henrique 32. Kukri 99. Lucas Cardoso 41. Marcao (G) 55. Radsley 21. Renan Castro 20. Schiappacasse N. 30. Thalyson 19. Thayllon	21. Alan Stence 9. Denilson Chaves 36. Douglas Skilo 12. Fabio Rampi (G) 7. Fau 4. Guilherme Ferreira 27. Igor Henrique 77. Juninho 30. Raoni 6. Rhuan 5. Ricardinho 23. Schilling Arthur
Coaches
Junior Rocha	Rogerio Correa

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
33', 1 - 0, Caio Mello ⚽,
44', Bruno Bispo 🟨,
45+2', 🟨,
45+3', Fernandinho 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
53', Rafael Carillho ↓, Igor Henrique ↑,
55', Fernandinho ↓, Raoni ↑,
57', 🟨,
58', Thiago M. ↓, Juninho ↑,
65', Raoni 🟨,
71', Marcinho 🟨,
73', Albano ↓, Fau ↑,
73', Maranhao ↓, Denilson Chaves ↑,
83', Marcinho ↓, Radsley ↑,
85', Jean Drosny 🟨,
88', Radsley 🟨,
90+5', Italo Carvalho ↓, Schiappacasse N. ↑,
90+5', Caio Mello ↓, Castro ↑,

Preview

A high-stakes clash as a relegation-threatened team welcomes an elite contender (ranked 4th and 1st in the Promotion - Serie B).

Paysandu has struggled for results with multiple recent losses (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Ferroviária is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Paysandu has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 4:8 (averaging 1:2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Paysandu against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 2:1 goals.

Outrights of Brazilian Serie C for now

Ferroviaria: 23.95%

Last Results with these Odds

Ferroviária - the odds 3.3 are the expected chance of winning is 27.41%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paysandu PA
Brazilian Serie C
26.09.26	Internacional de Limeira - Paysandu	2:0 ✺
20.09.26	Paysandu - Internacional de Limeira	2:2 ✺
13.09.26	Ferroviária - Paysandu	1:0 ✺
07.09.26	Paysandu - Brusque	1:2 ✺
29.08.26	Paysandu - Maringá	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LTLLL
- Associação Ferroviária de Esportes
Brazilian Serie C
27.09.26	Brusque - Ferroviária	1:1 ✺
20.09.26	Ferroviária - Brusque	3:2 ✺
13.09.26	Ferroviária - Paysandu	1:0 ✺
05.09.26	Internacional de Limeira - Ferroviária	3:3 ✺
29.08.26	Ferroviária - Confiança	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 TWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
13.09.26	Ferroviária - Paysandu	1:0
17.08.26	Ferroviária - Paysandu	4:0
Brazilian Serie B
20.10.25	Ferroviária - Paysandu	2:2
30.06.25	Paysandu - Ferroviária	2:1

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