Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 8

Date: 25 May 2026, Monday

Location: Leonidas Sodre de Castro (Curuzu) (Belem)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, Zapping


	Paysandu		Floresta

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.85	3	4.25	Watch
	1.88	3.1	4.92
	1.95	2.83	4.92	Watch
	1.85	2.75	4.4
	1.79	3.02	4.71	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↑ (1.79)	2.94 ↓ (3.19)	4.64 ↓ (4.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Paysandu
49.1%

Draw
31.1%

Floresta
19.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.9%

29.1%

19%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6%

28.7%

18.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paysandu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Floresta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Floresta than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
54.5%	27.3%	18.2%

Paysandu - Floresta Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Paysandu will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Floresta will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paysandu: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Gabriel Mesquita (G) 14. Bruno Bispo 8. Caio Mello 98. Juninho 4. larley Brito 99. Lucas Cardoso 77. Luciano Taboca 10. Marcinho (C) 20. Matheus Capixaba 39. Pedro Henrique 19. Thayllon	12. Dheimison (C) 3. Afonso 29. Caique 8. Danrley 15. Eliandro 13. Garraty 23. Islan 9. Jeam 5. Jhony Douglas 4. Joao Victor 21. Matheus Martins
Substitutes
31. Bonifazi F. 23. Brian Macapa 15. Castro 2. Edilson 5. Henrico 9. Italo Carvalho 94. Kaua Hinkel 41. Marcao (G) 96. Matheus Vargas 3. Quintana Y. 30. Thalyson 25. Tiago Indio	31. Buga 19. Daniel 6. Diego Matos 30. Eduardo 28. Guilherme Borges 1. Jeferson Souza (G) 18. Joao Celeri 10. Matheusinho 17. Nonato 11. Rafinha 14. Valdo

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Caio Mello ⚽,
27', Eliandro 🟨,
34', Pedro Henrique 🟨,
36', 2 - 0, Juninho ⚽,
39', Luciano Taboca 🟨,
45', Marcinho 🟨,
45+3', Matheus Martins 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Pedro Henrique ↓, Henrico ↑,
46', Marcinho ↓, Kaua Hinkel ↑,
46', Matheus Martins ↓, Daniel ↑,
46', Eliandro ↓, Nonato ↑,
58', Danrley ↓, Buga ↑,
58', Garraty ↓, Matheusinho ↑,
68', Caique 🟨,
70', Matheus Capixaba ↓, Edilson ↑,
70', Caio Mello ↓, Brian Macapa ↑,
73', Jeam ↓, Joao Celeri ↑,
77', Joao Victor 🟨,
77', Henrico 🟨,
80', Thayllon ↓, Matheus Vargas ↑,
85', 2 - 1, Daniel ⚽,
88', Nonato 🟨,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: )).

Paysandu is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Floresta has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Paysandu may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Paysandu is considered a favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Paysandu won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:3. (average 1.3:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Paysandu won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Paysandu - the odds 1.79 are the expected chance of winning is 51.91%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paysandu PA
Brazilian Copa Norte
20.05.26	Paysandu - Nacional AM	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
17.05.26	Caxias - Paysandu	2:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
13.05.26	Vasco da Gama - Paysandu	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
09.05.26	Paysandu - Anápolis	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Norte
06.05.26	Águia de Marabá - Paysandu	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.6 WLTWW
- Floresta EC
Brazilian Serie C
16.05.26	Floresta - Amazonas	3:2 ✺
09.05.26	Itabaiana - Floresta	0:0 ✺
04.05.26	Floresta - Maranhão	1:2 ✺
25.04.26	Botafogo PB - Floresta	1:2 ✺
20.04.26	Floresta - Ferroviária	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.6 WTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
18.06.23	Paysandu - Floresta	2:1
13.08.22	Paysandu - Floresta	0:1
28.08.21	Paysandu - Floresta	1:1
27.06.21	Floresta - Paysandu	0:2

Upcoming Matches