Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 28

Date: 23 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: Leonidas Sodre de Castro (Belem)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet+, Zapping


	Paysandu		Grêmio Novorizontino

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.1	2.2	Watch
	3.3	3	2.22
	3.5	3.07	2.34
	3.41	3.00	2.26	Watch
	3.44	3.1	2.19	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.39 ↑ (2.76)	3.05 ↑ (2.89)	2.24 ↓ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paysandu
27.6%

Draw
30.6%

Grêmio Novorizontino
41.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

32.8%

32.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.7%

34%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paysandu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Paysandu's form might have worsened.

Grêmio Novorizontino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Grêmio Novorizontino's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Paysandu, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (-10.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Grêmio Novorizontino, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	50%	12.5%

Paysandu - Grêmio Novorizontino Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Paysandu will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Novorizontino will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Novorizontino (1.60) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Novorizontino (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Matheus Nogueira (G) 2. Edilson 44. Thiago Heleno 5. Novillo J. 21. Bryan Borges 15. Dudu Vieira 28. Leandro Vilela (C) 16. Reverson 35. Mauricio Antonio 9. Diogo Oliveira 10. Mauricio Garcez	1. Airton (G) 2. Rodrigo Soares (C) 37. Cesar Martins 4. Patrick 77. Mayk 6. Luis Oyama 47. Fabio Matheus 25. Romulo 10. Matheus Frizzo 17. Bruno Jose 99. Nathan Fogaca
Substitutes
20. Denner 18. Edinho 12. Gabriel Mesquita (G) 39. Goncalves P. 36. Gustavo Nicola 30. Marcelinho 11. Marlon Douglas 3. Quintana Y. 43. Ramon Vinicius 77. Rossi 99. Vinicius Faria 26. Wendel	20. Airton 19. Leo Tocantins 9. Lucca 23. Marcelo (G) 7. Pablo Dyego 88. Patrick Brey 3. Rafael Donato 11. Robson 22. Ruiz O. 15. Tavinho 8. Willian Farias
Coaches
Marcio Fernandes	Moreira E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Leandro Vilela ↓, Gustavo Nicola ↑,
14', Gustavo Nicola 🟨,
27', Dudu Vieira 🟨,
39', Romulo 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Nathan Fogaca ↓, Rafael Donato ↑,
46', Matheus Frizzo ↓, Robson ↑,
46', Novillo J. ↓, Rossi ↑,
46', Dudu Vieira ↓, Denner ↑,
47', Bryan Borges 🟨,
53', Fabio Matheus 🟨,
54', Patrick 🟨,
60', Fabio Matheus ↓, Willian Farias ↑,
70', Bryan Borges ↓, Marlon Douglas ↑,
72', Cesar Martins ↓, Ruiz O. ↑,
73', Rossi 🟨,
83', Romulo ↓, Tavinho ↑,
88', Gustavo Nicola ↓, Wendel ↑,
89', 0 - 1, Rafael Donato ⚽, Patrick (A),
90+1', Fabio Matheus 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano).

Paysandu has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Novorizontino has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Novorizontino may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Paysandu: Matheus Vargas (Injury) Thalisson (Red Card)

There will not play in Novorizontino: Marlon (Inactive) Renato Palm (Knee Injury) Vitinho (Inactive) Waguininho (Inactive)

There are questionable in Paysandu: Anderson Leite (Injury) Denner (Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Paysandu won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:7. (average 1:2.3).

Including home match between the teams, Paysandu won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Last Results with these Odds

Grêmio Novorizontino - the odds 2.9 are the expected chance of winning is 32.72%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paysandu PA
Brazilian Serie B
20.09.25	Goiás - Paysandu	1:0 ✺
13.09.25	Paysandu - América Mineiro	0:0 ✺
05.09.25	Paysandu - Volta Redonda	1:2 ✺
30.08.25	CRB Maceio - Paysandu	2:0 ✺
24.08.25	Paysandu - Operário Ferroviario	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LTLLL
- Grêmio Novorizontino
Brazilian Serie B
19.09.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Athletic Club	1:0 ✺
15.09.25	Ferroviária - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:2 ✺
08.09.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Atlético Goianiense	1:1 ✺
30.08.25	Athletico Paranaense - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:1 ✺
22.08.25	Criciúma - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
25.05.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Paysandu	3:1
16.11.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - Paysandu	1:1
29.07.24	Paysandu - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:3

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