Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 27

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio da Serrinha (Goiania)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, ESPN, RedeTV!, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Goiás		Paysandu

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.4	5.75	Watch
	1.65	3.45	5.5
	1.71	3.58	5.94
	1.68	3.68	5.16	Watch
	1.56	3.7	5.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↑ (1.56)	3.56 ↓ (3.7)	5.65 ↓ (5.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Goiás
57.1%

Draw
26.3%

Paysandu
16.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.3%

25%

15.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.5%

20%

19.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Goiás has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Paysandu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Goiás than the current prediction. (-9.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Goiás that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Goiás - Paysandu Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Goiás (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Goiás will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Goiás will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Goiás (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Tadeu (C) 97. Willean Lepo 75. Messias 14. Lucas Ribeiro 6. Moraes 8. Rafael Gava 32. Rodrigo Andrade 28. Juninho 7. Jaja 45. Arthur Caike 91. Brayann	13. Matheus Nogueira (G) 35. Mauricio Antonio 44. Thiago Heleno 6. Thalisson 2. Edilson 29. Anderson Leite 28. Leandro Vilela (C) 21. Bryan Borges 77. Rossi 10. Mauricio Garcez 9. Diogo Oliveira
Substitutes
55. Baldoria 66. Danilo Cunha 20. Diego Caito 12. Ezequiel (G) 2. Fabio 15. Garcia E. 21. Jean Carlos 3. Luiz Felipe 25. Luquinhas 88. Lustosa V. 4. Titi 11. Welliton	98. Denilson 15. Dudu Vieira 18. Edinho 12. Gabriel Mesquita (G) 36. Gustavo Nicola 22. Joao Marcos 11. Marlon Douglas 5. Novillo J. 43. Ramon Vinicius 16. Reverson
Coaches
Vagner Mancini	Marcio Fernandes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Rossi 🟨,
25', Lucas Ribeiro 🟨,
34', Jaja ↓, Garcia E. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Anderson Leite ↓, Gustavo Nicola ↑,
64', Arthur Caike ↓, Welliton ↑,
64', Rossi ↓, Joao Marcos ↑,
74', Leandro Vilela 🟨,
79', Diogo Oliveira ↓, Edinho ↑,
79', Brayann ↓, Jean Carlos ↑,
87', 1 - 0, Jean Carlos ⚽, Willean Lepo (A),
89', Mauricio Antonio ↓, Denilson ↑,
90', Mauricio Garcez ↓, Marlon Douglas ↑,
90+6', Thalisson 🟥,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Goiás won 0.

Goiás is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Paysandu has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Goiás may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Goiás is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Goiás: Anselmo Ramon (Red Card) Freitas G. (Yellow Cards) Lucas Lovat (Yellow Cards) Marcao Silva (Red Card) Martin Benitez (Red Card) Pedrinho (Injury) Thiago Rodrigues (Yellow Cards) Wellington Rato (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Paysandu: Denner (Injury) Matheus Vargas (Injury) Vinicius Faria (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Paysandu: Leandro Vilela (Inactive)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Goiás won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:10. (average 1.2:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Goiás won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:6. (average 1.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Goiás EC
Brazilian Serie B
12.09.25	Coritiba - Goiás	0:0 ✺
07.09.25	Avaí - Goiás	2:1 ✺
30.08.25	Goiás - Botafogo SP	2:3 ✺
23.08.25	Goiás - América Mineiro	1:0 ✺
16.08.25	Vila Nova - Goiás	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 TLLWL
- Paysandu PA
Brazilian Serie B
13.09.25	Paysandu - América Mineiro	0:0 ✺
05.09.25	Paysandu - Volta Redonda	1:2 ✺
30.08.25	CRB Maceio - Paysandu	2:0 ✺
24.08.25	Paysandu - Operário Ferroviario	1:2 ✺
17.08.25	Chapecoense - Paysandu	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
18.05.25	Paysandu - Goiás	0:0
Brazilian Copa Verde
23.04.25	Goiás - Paysandu	1:2 penalties
09.04.25	Paysandu - Goiás	0:0
Brazilian Serie B
01.09.24	Goiás - Paysandu	1:1
15.05.24	Paysandu - Goiás	1:1
Brazilian Copa Verde
31.05.23	Goiás - Paysandu	2:1
17.05.23	Paysandu - Goiás	0:2

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