Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 3 - Round 34

Date: 4 May 2025, Sunday


	Peña Deportiva		Elche Ilicitano

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.25	3.1
	2.1	3.2	3.2
	2.04	3.25	3.22
	2.1	3.31	3.23
	2.08	3.38	3.27
	2.1	3.2	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↓ (2.52)	3.27 ↑ (3.18)	3.2 ↑ (2.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Peña Deportiva
43.8%

Draw
27.9%

Elche Ilicitano
28.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.4%

28.8%

34.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.6%

27.4%

36.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Peña Deportiva has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Peña Deportiva's performance.

Elche Ilicitano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Elche Ilicitano might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peña Deportiva than the current prediction. (-9.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Peña Deportiva that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Elche Ilicitano than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Elche Ilicitano could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Peña Deportiva - Elche Ilicitano Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
13', 0 - 1, Pena H. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
90+2', 1 - 1, Valles A. ⚽,
90+3', Nordin M. 🟥,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation and 9).

Peña Deportiva is Relegated to

Recent performances by Peña Deportiva have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ilicitano has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Peña Deportiva could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Peña Deportiva won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Peña Deportiva
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 3
27.04.25	Alzira - Peña Deportiva	0:2 ✺
20.04.25	Peña Deportiva - Olot	0:0 ✺
13.04.25	Sabadell - Peña Deportiva	1:0 ✺
06.04.25	Peña Deportiva - Sant Andreu	2:2 ✺
30.03.25	Cornellà - Peña Deportiva	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WTLTL
- Elche CF Ilicitano
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 3
27.04.25	Elche Ilicitano - CE Europa	0:1 ✺
20.04.25	Mallorca B - Elche Ilicitano	2:0 ✺
13.04.25	Atlético Baleares - Elche Ilicitano	1:1 ✺
05.04.25	Elche Ilicitano - Alzira	1:0 ✺
30.03.25	Olot - Elche Ilicitano	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 3
21.12.24	Elche Ilicitano - Peña Deportiva	2:1

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