Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura - Round 10

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Campeón del Siglo (Montevideo) 🌤️ ...

Referee: De Armas M. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	18:30	Disney+
Brazil	18:30	Disney+
Mexico	15:30	Disney+
Peru	16:30	Disney+
Uruguay	18:30	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	17:30	Disney+


	Peñarol de Montevideo		Progreso

	1	X	2
	1.36	4.50	7.50	Watch
	1.36	4.75	7.00
	1.38	4.40	8.00
	1.35	5.23	9.09
	1.39	4.73	7.5	Watch
	1.32	5.15	8.65
	1.39	4.58	7.63	Watch
	1.36	4.70	7.40
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.38)	4.76 ↑ (4.5)	7.85 ↓ (8)

The most likely Over/Under: 7.00

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Peñarol de Montevideo
68.5%

Draw
19.6%

Progreso
11.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

67.6%

20.7%

11.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.2%

19.7%

11.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Peñarol de Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Progreso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Progreso than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Peñarol de Montevideo - Progreso Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Aguerre W. (G) 6. Ferreira L. 2. Pezzella G. 34. Herrera N. 7. Cabrera J. 5. Remedi E. 8. Fernandez N. 26. Espinosa Dovat T. N. 11. Jaime C. 32. Umpierrez L. 19. Arezo M.	1. Bacchia R. (G) 24. Alvarez E. 15. Martin M. 6. Saravia M. 40. Cougo A. 5. Pinheiro A. 25. Cristobal R. 17. De Leon F. 10. Lopez N. 7. Ocampo A. 8. Juambeltz M.
Substitutes
28. Alegre I. 9. Batista F. 1. Britos S. (G) 13. Darias E. 80. Gonzalez F. 99. Hernandez A. 21. Jesus Trindade 3. Lemos M. 27. Lucas Hernandez 33. Rodriguez J.	21. Bruschi S. 2. Cardozo Coitinho S. 13. Carroso H. 30. Codagnone A. 23. Copelotti M. 12. Fernandez L. (G) 26. Pablo Oliva J. 18. Silva G. 20. Silva G. 27. Silva G.
Coaches
Aguirre D.	Silva T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
5', Saravia M. ↓, Carroso H. ↑,
26', 0 - 1, Lopez N. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Fernandez N. ↓, Hernandez A. ↑,
46', Herrera N. ↓, Alegre I. ↑,
58', Jaime C. 🟨,
61', Umpierrez L. ↓, Darias E. ↑,
70', Cougo A. ↓, Silva G. ↑,
70', Juambeltz M. ↓, Copelotti M. ↑,
71', Espinosa Dovat T. N. ↓, Lucas Hernandez ↑,
76', Darias E. 🟨,
78', Jaime C. ↓, Gonzalez F. ↑,
83', Ocampo A. ↓, Bruschi S. ↑,
83', De Leon F. ↓, Codagnone A. ↑,
90+2', 1 - 1, Hernandez A. ⚽,

Preview

An intriguing matchup between an upper-bracket team and a mid-table rival (ranked 3rd and 10th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Peñarol won 5.

Peñarol is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Performances by Progreso have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Peñarol may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Peñarol has faced a series of away games on the road.

The betting markets point to Peñarol as the clear and undisputed favorite.

Our forecast points to a victory for Peñarol in today's match, at odds of 1.38.

In the last 18 head-to-head meetings, Peñarol has recorded 13 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 34:13 (averaging 1.9:0.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Peñarol against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 12:5 goals (averaging 1.7:0.7 per game).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Penarol	12	6	4	2	16:8	8	21
6	Progreso	12	6	1	5	13:13	0	19

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
04.10.26	Racing Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1 ✺
30.09.26	Montevideo City Torque - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:1 ✺
26.09.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Boston River	2:1 ✺
Uruguay Copa
24.09.26	Danubio - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
19.09.26	Cerro - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WTWTW
- CA Progreso
Uruguayan Primera Division
03.10.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Progreso	3:2 ✺
26.09.26	Progreso - Racing Montevideo	2:1 ✺
19.09.26	Boston River - Progreso	1:2 ✺
Uruguay Copa
16.09.26	Progreso - Nacional Montevideo	0:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
13.09.26	Progreso - Cerro	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
04.04.26	Progreso - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:2
01.08.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Progreso	2:1
01.02.25	Progreso - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:3
26.11.24	Progreso - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:5
22.06.24	Progreso - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:2
23.05.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Progreso	3:1
25.11.21	Progreso - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:0

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