Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura - Round 12

Date: 19 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Parque Abraham Paladino (Montevideo)

Referee: Feres J. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica
Uruguay	Disney+, VTV+
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Progreso		Defensor Sporting

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.2	2.3	Watch
	2.92	3.15	2.28
	3.19	3.23	2.41
	3.36	2.95	2.31	Watch
	3.01	3.27	2.32	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.08 ↑ (2.74)	3.16 ↓ (3.25)	2.32 ↓ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Progreso
30.3%

Draw
29.5%

Defensor Sporting
40.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.5%

28.2%

38.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

29.3%

39.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Progreso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Defensor Sporting has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Progreso than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Defensor Sporting than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Progreso - Defensor Sporting Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gentilio N. (G) 16. Trasante G. 4. Paolini M. 23. Olivera Moreira L. N. 40. Cougo A. 7. Garcia A. 29. Fernandez N. 10. Lemmo I. (C) 18. Silva G. 9. Silva G. 19. Lopez F.	12. Dawson K. (G) 13. Furtado N. 3. De los Santos G. (C) 15. Viacava J. 14. Pacifico P. 11. Agazzi L. 6. Amaro M. 18. Sena N. 7. Lozano B. 9. Machado A. 19. Abreu D.
Substitutes
28. Asconeguy D. 13. Carroso H. 24. De Los Santos M. 15. Hernandez R. 6. Kidd F. 14. Lopez N. 11. Lopez P. 35. Mendez F. (G) 2. Prieto A. 17. Sosa F.	10. Biscayzacu X. 90. Cambon A. 24. de los Santos L. 20. Konig L. 1. Machado L. (G) 28. Navarro L. 4. Rodriguez G. 61. Saravia M. 22. Torterolo A. 8. Wunsch N.
Coaches
Rocco L.	Ithurralde I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Abreu D. ⚽,
22', Cougo A. 🟨,
26', Amaro M. 🟨,
32', 1 - 1, Lopez F. ⚽,
44', Lemmo I. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Lozano B. ↓, Wunsch N. ↑,
46', Furtado N. ↓, Torterolo A. ↑,
54', Sena N. ↓, Biscayzacu X. ↑,
62', 1 - 2, Abreu D. ⚽,
65', De los Santos G. 🟨,
65', Wunsch N. 🟨,
67', Fernandez N. ↓, Lopez P. ↑,
73', Machado A. ↓, Cambon A. ↑,
73', Pacifico P. ↓, Saravia M. ↑,
80', Lopez F. ↓, Lopez N. ↑,
80', Silva G. ↓, De Los Santos M. ↑,
82', Silva G. ↓, Hernandez R. ↑,
82', Trasante G. ↓, Sosa F. ↑,
86', 2 - 2, Wunsch N. (Own goal),
90+3', 2 - 3, Cambon A. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Progreso won 1.

Progreso is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Defensor Sporting has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Progreso may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Progreso won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 20:30. (average 1.3:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Progreso won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:16. (average 1.3:2.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Progreso - the odds 2.74 are the expected chance of winning is 33.54%, but this team recently wins 42% of matches with these odds.

Defensor Sporting - the odds 2.4 are the expected chance of winning is 38.23%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Progreso
Uruguayan Primera Division
10.10.25	Plaza Colonia - Progreso	0:1 ✺
05.10.25	Progreso - Cerro	2:0 ✺
29.09.25	Racing Montevideo - Progreso	0:0 ✺
21.09.25	Progreso - Montevideo Wanderers	2:0 ✺
14.09.25	River Plate Montevideo - Progreso	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.9 WWTWT
- Defensor Sporting
Uruguay Copa
15.10.25	Defensor Sporting - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:2 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
11.10.25	Cerro - Defensor Sporting	1:0 ✺
06.10.25	Defensor Sporting - Montevideo Wanderers	2:1 ✺
Uruguay Copa
02.10.25	Defensor Sporting - Central Español	2:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
28.09.25	Miramar Misiones - Defensor Sporting	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
20.04.25	Defensor Sporting - Progreso	1:2
13.11.24	Defensor Sporting - Progreso	3:0
15.06.24	Defensor Sporting - Progreso	1:1
12.05.24	Progreso - Defensor Sporting	1:4
Uruguay Copa
03.11.22	Defensor Sporting - Progreso	3:1
26.10.22	Progreso - Defensor Sporting	1:1
Uruguayan Primera Division
11.02.21	Progreso - Defensor Sporting	3:3

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