Match Info

Date: 1 November 2026, Sunday ⏱️ In 3d 21h 📅 Remind Me


	Progreso		Defensor Sporting

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.10	2.45	Watch
	2.55	3.25	2.55
	2.60	3.10	2.50
	2.68	3.35	2.65
	2.63	3.23	2.63	Watch
	2.60	3.15	2.55
	2.47	3.08	2.58	Watch
	2.60	3.10	2.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.59 ↓ (2.73)	3.17 ↑ (3.13)	2.55 ↑ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Progreso
35.4%

Draw
28.8%

Defensor Sporting
35.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

33.7%

29.4%

36.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.4%

29.7%

37.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Progreso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Defensor Sporting has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Progreso than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Defensor Sporting than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	0%

Progreso - Defensor Sporting Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Progreso won 2.

Progreso is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Defensor Sporting is on a prolonged losing streak (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Defensor Sporting could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 19 head-to-head meetings, Progreso has recorded 5 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 23:34 (averaging 1.2:1.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Progreso against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 3 draws, and 4 losses, with 11:19 goals (averaging 1.4:2.4 per game).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Progreso	12	6	1	5	13:13	0	19

Last Results with these Odds

Defensor Sporting - the odds 2.5 are the expected chance of winning is 36.88%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Progreso
Uruguayan Primera Division
25.10.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Progreso	0:1 ✺
17.10.26	Progreso - Juventud de Las Piedras	2:0 ✺
10.10.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Progreso	1:1 ✺
03.10.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Progreso	3:2 ✺
26.09.26	Progreso - Racing Montevideo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 28.4 WWTLW
- Defensor Sporting
Uruguayan Primera Division
24.10.26	Defensor Sporting - Racing Montevideo	3:3 ✺
17.10.26	Boston River - Defensor Sporting	1:0 ✺
10.10.26	Defensor Sporting - Cerro	2:3 ✺
03.10.26	Albion Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	3:2 ✺
Uruguay Copa
30.09.26	Defensor Sporting - Plaza Colonia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
27.04.26	Defensor Sporting - Progreso	1:0
Uruguayan Copa de la Liga AUF
11.01.26	Defensor Sporting - Progreso	0:1 penalties
Uruguayan Primera Division
19.10.25	Progreso - Defensor Sporting	2:3
20.04.25	Defensor Sporting - Progreso	1:2
13.11.24	Defensor Sporting - Progreso	3:0
15.06.24	Defensor Sporting - Progreso	1:1
12.05.24	Progreso - Defensor Sporting	1:4

Progreso - Defensor Sporting