Match Info

Paulista A4 - Round 14

Date: 28 March 2026, Saturday


	Penapolense		Araçatuba

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.95	4.95
	1.04	11.35	19.33
	1.03	10.27	25	Watch
	1.04	12	51
	1.01	10.7	30
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.11 ↓ (1.52)	9.85 ↑ (3.64)	26.06 ↑ (5.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Penapolense
86.6%

Draw
9.7%

Araçatuba
3.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.5%

24.9%

15.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.9%

23.9%

15%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Penapolense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+27.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Penapolense's performance.

Araçatuba has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Araçatuba might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Penapolense than the current prediction. (-24.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Penapolense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Araçatuba than the current prediction. (+11.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Araçatuba could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Penapolense - Araçatuba Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (6 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, ⚽,
19', 2 - 0, ⚽,
35', 3 - 0, ⚽,
38', 4 - 0, ⚽,
42', 5 - 0, ⚽,
45+1', 6 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A4 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Paulista B).

Penapolense is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Araçatuba is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Penapolense is the undisputed favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Penapolense
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A4
25.03.26	Penapolense - Barretos	1:1 ✺
21.03.26	Grêmio Desportivo São-Carlense - Penapolense	0:0 ✺
18.03.26	Penapolense - Jabaquara	3:2 ✺
14.03.26	Nacional SP - Penapolense	0:2 ✺
07.03.26	Penapolense - Inter de Bebedouro	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 TTWWT
- AEA Araçatuba
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A4
25.03.26	Araçatuba - VOCEM	0:4 ✺
21.03.26	ECUS - Araçatuba	2:0 ✺
18.03.26	Araçatuba - Nacional SP	2:3 ✺
14.03.26	Araçatuba - Comercial SP	0:0 ✺
07.03.26	Barretos - Araçatuba	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLLTL

Penapolense - Araçatuba: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide