Match Info

Paulista A4 - Round 10

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday


	Araçatuba		Comercial SP

	1	X	2
	2.62	2.82	2.68
	2.96	2.8	2.45
	2.9	2.86	2.51
	2.9	2.7	2.4
	3.12	3.12	2.34
	2.48	2.9	2.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↑ (2.48)	2.87 ↓ (2.9)	2.54 ↓ (2.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Araçatuba
32.2%

Draw
31.8%

Comercial SP
35.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.7%

31.4%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.2%

30.2%

30.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Araçatuba has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Comercial SP has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Araçatuba than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Araçatuba, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Comercial SP than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Comercial SP, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Araçatuba - Comercial SP Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation ~ Paulista B and 11).

Araçatuba is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Comercial SP has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AEA Araçatuba
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A4
07.03.26	Barretos - Araçatuba	2:1 ✺
04.03.26	Inter de Bebedouro - Araçatuba	4:0 ✺
28.02.26	Araçatuba - São Caetano	1:3 ✺
25.02.26	Jacareí - Araçatuba	2:0 ✺
21.02.26	Araçatuba - Colorado Caieiras	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LLLLW
- Comercial de Ribeirão Preto
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A4
07.03.26	Comercial SP - Nacional SP	2:0 ✺
04.03.26	São Caetano - Comercial SP	2:1 ✺
28.02.26	Comercial SP - Lemense FC	0:1 ✺
25.02.26	Colorado Caieiras - Comercial SP	1:2 ✺
21.02.26	Comercial SP - Barretos	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WLLWL

Araçatuba - Comercial SP: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide