Match Info

Paulista A4 - Round 11

Date: 18 March 2026, Wednesday


	Araçatuba		Nacional SP

	1	X	2
	1.98	3	3.6
	1.97	3.11	3.55
	2	3.15	3.63	Watch
	2	2.9	3.5
	1.99	3.1	3.62
	2.18	2.95	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↓ (2.2)	3.04 ↑ (3.03)	3.52 ↑ (3.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Araçatuba
44.6%

Draw
29.7%

Nacional SP
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.4%

30.1%

28.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.6%

25.9%

33.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Araçatuba has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Nacional SP has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Araçatuba than the current prediction. (-9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Araçatuba that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional SP than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nacional SP could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Araçatuba - Nacional SP Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
18', 1 - 0, ⚽,
29', 1 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
61', 2 - 1, ⚽,
84', 2 - 2, ⚽,
90+2', 2 - 3, ⚽,
90+6', 🟥,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation ~ Paulista B and 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Paulista B).

A run of poor results has hit both teams ahead of this match.

Araçatuba will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Araçatuba won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AEA Araçatuba
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A4
14.03.26	Araçatuba - Comercial SP	0:0 ✺
07.03.26	Barretos - Araçatuba	2:1 ✺
04.03.26	Inter de Bebedouro - Araçatuba	4:0 ✺
28.02.26	Araçatuba - São Caetano	1:3 ✺
25.02.26	Jacareí - Araçatuba	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 TLLLL
- Nacional SP
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A4
14.03.26	Nacional SP - Penapolense	0:2 ✺
07.03.26	Comercial SP - Nacional SP	2:0 ✺
04.03.26	Nacional SP - Taquaritinga	0:4 ✺
28.02.26	Tanabi - Nacional SP	2:0 ✺
25.02.26	Nacional SP - Lemense FC	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A4
01.02.25	Nacional SP - Araçatuba	2:0

Araçatuba - Nacional SP: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide