Match Info

Copa Alagoas - Round 3

Date: 2 March 2026, Monday

Location: Estádio Alfredo Leahy (Penedo)


	Penedense		Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense

	1	X	2
	3	2.75	2.35
	3.39	2.56	2.27
	3.17	3.01	2.28	Watch
	3	2.8	2.3
	3.39	2.67	2.32
	7	3.7	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.83 ↓ (6.82)	2.92 ↓ (3.76)	2.17 ↑ (1.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Penedense
24.5%

Draw
32.2%

Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense
43.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13.4%

24.2%

62.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.1%

23.6%

63.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Penedense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Penedense's performance.

Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-19.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Penedense than the current prediction. (-11.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Penedense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense than the current prediction. (+20.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Penedense - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
90+10', 0 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Penedense won 0.

Penedense is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

ASA is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

ASA may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, ASA is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Penedense won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 2:7. (average 0.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Penedense won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:3. (average 0.3:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Penedense
Copa do Brasil
25.02.26	Londrina - Penedense	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Alagoas
21.02.26	Miguelense - Penedense	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Alagoano
07.02.26	Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Penedense	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Alagoas
04.02.26	Penedense - Murici	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Alagoano
01.02.26	Penedense - Murici	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LWLLT
- Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense
Brazilian Campeonato Alagoano
28.02.26	CRB Maceio - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	3:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
25.02.26	Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Operário MS	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Alagoano
22.02.26	Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Murici	3:0 ✺
14.02.26	Murici - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	0:0 ✺
07.02.26	Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Penedense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Alagoano
07.02.26	Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Penedense	2:0
Brazilian Serie D
13.07.25	Penedense - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	0:1
03.05.25	Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Penedense	1:0
Club Friendly
05.04.25	Penedense - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	0:0
Brazilian Copa Alagoas
22.01.25	Penedense - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	0:0
Brazilian Campeonato Alagoano
19.01.25	Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Penedense	1:1
18.02.24	Penedense - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	1:2

Penedense - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide