The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Murici 19.1%
Draw 30.3%
Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense 50.5%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
18.2%
26.7%
55.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
17.8%
26.1%
56.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Murici has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)
Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Murici than the current prediction. (-1.3%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense than the current prediction. (+5.8%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
1. Robert (G) 4. Alex Moreira (C) 2. Alex Murici 11. Caio Vinicius 6. Caique 5. Denilson 8. Ewerton Ageu 16. Leo Itaperuna 3. Leo Reis 10. Marcelinho 7. Wesley
Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Alagoano (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Alagoano (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Murici won 0.
Murici is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).
ASA is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).
In this match, ASA is seen as the favorite.
In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Murici won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 13:25. (average 0.8:1.5).
Including home matches between the teams, Murici won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:13. (average 1:1.4).
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Robert (G) 
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