Match Info

ITALY: Serie C - Group A - Round 7

Date: 30 September 2024, Monday

Location: Giuseppe Voltini (Crema)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, Sky Sport 256


	Pergolettese		Caldiero Terme

	1	X	2
	2	3.1	3.3
	2.1	3	3.75
	2.09	3.1	3.95
	2.06	3.05	3.98	Watch
	2.05	3	3.5
	1.99	3.04	3.74	Watch
	2.1	3	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↓ (2.38)	3.04 ↓ (3.1)	3.71 ↑ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pergolettese
44.8%

Draw
30.3%

Caldiero Terme
24.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38%

29.2%

32.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.8%

27.9%

31.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pergolettese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Pergolettese's performance.

Caldiero Terme has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Caldiero Terme might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pergolettese than the current prediction. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caldiero Terme than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Caldiero Terme could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

Pergolettese - Caldiero Terme Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Pergolettese will win (votes: 7 - 87.5%). Caldiero Terme will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Pergolettese: 64.6% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cordaro L. (G) 2. Tonoli D. 4. Arini M. 15. Stante F. 16. Albertini A. 80. Jaouhari Z. 24. Schiavini A. 21. Careccia S. 33. Capoferri M. 9. Parker S. 19. Basili D.	1. Giacomel A. (G) 28. Molnar I. 23. Baldani N. 33. Mazzolo F. 26. Mondini G. 8. Filiciotto A. 29. Lanzi E. 15. Gecchele P. 11. Marras T. 10. Fasan N. 9. Quaggio A.
Substitutes
70. Abubakar S. 90. Anelli N. 5. Bignami R. 92. Bouabre E. 11. Cerasani J. 12. Dordoni S. (G) 14. Lambrughi A. 26. Lecchi M. 6. Mondele L. 34. Olivieri E. 22. Raimondi P. (G) 27. Sartori G.	91. Aldegheri L. (G) 5. Amoh A. A. 75. Beghini A. 97. Cazzadori D. 80. Cisse O. 20. Florio M. 6. Furini E. 4. Gattoni T. 22. Kuqi O. (G) 14. Pelamatti A. 3. Personi L. 7. Zerbato L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Capoferri M. ⚽,
10', Filiciotto A. 🟨,
11', 2 - 0, Jaouhari Z. ⚽,
24', 3 - 0, Tonoli D. ⚽,
36', Parker S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Mazzolo F. ↓, Gattoni T. ↑,
49', 3 - 1, Lanzi E. ⚽,
54', Albertini A. 🟨,
59', Mondini G. ↓, Cazzadori D. ↑,
62', Basili D. ↓, Anelli N. ↑,
68', Fasan N. ↓, Florio M. ↑,
73', Capoferri M. ↓, Olivieri E. ↑,
73', Schiavini A. ↓, Lambrughi A. ↑,
75', Lanzi E. 🟨,
78', Quaggio A. ↓, Zerbato L. ↑,
78', Molnar I. ↓, Furini E. ↑,
83', 3 - 2, Zerbato L. ⚽,
85', Gattoni T. 🟨,
87', Careccia S. 🟨,
89', Florio M. 🟨,
90+2', Albertini A. ↓, Bignami R. ↑,
90+6', Careccia S. 🟨,

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals)).

Pergolettese is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Caldiero Terme is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Pergolettese will have a poor advantage in this game.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Pergolettese
Italian Serie C Group A
25.09.24	Atalanta U23 - Pergolettese	5:1 ✺
21.09.24	Pergolettese - FeralpiSalò	2:2 ✺
13.09.24	AlbinoLeffe - Pergolettese	3:0 ✺
07.09.24	Pergolettese - Union Clodiense	2:2 ✺
01.09.24	Pergolettese - Vicenza Virtus	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LTLTL
- Caldiero Terme
Italian Serie C Group A
25.09.24	Caldiero Terme - Alcione	0:2 ✺
22.09.24	Trento - Caldiero Terme	1:0 ✺
15.09.24	Caldiero Terme - Pro Vercelli	4:1 ✺
08.09.24	Triestina - Caldiero Terme	0:1 ✺
01.09.24	Caldiero Terme - Padova	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 LLWWL

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