Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 5

Date: 17 September 2026, Thursday

Location: Giuseppe Voltini (Crema)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 255


	Pergolettese		Folgore Caratese

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.50	3.00	2.55
	2.55	3	2.62	Watch
	2.75	3.1	2.73
	2.61	3.08	2.64	Watch
	2.7	3.05	2.6
	2.62	2.88	2.54	Watch
	2.6	3	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↑ (2.27)	3.02 ↑ (2.94)	2.62 ↓ (3.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pergolettese
34.9%

Draw
30.3%

Folgore Caratese
34.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.7%

30.6%

29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.9%

27.7%

32.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pergolettese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Folgore Caratese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Folgore Caratese's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pergolettese than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Folgore Caratese than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Pergolettese - Folgore Caratese Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Doldi F. (G) 76. Roversi L. 73. Bassi E. 5. Silvestri T. 49. Zaia E. 20. Tremolada M. 4. Arini M. (C) 80. Jaouhari Z. 10. Ferrandino D. 11. Corti N. 7. Pala A.	1. Salvalaggio D. (G) 4. Samotti N. 21. Gega E. 43. Bassino A. 24. Bellia E. 8. Castellano F. (C) 92. Tessiore A. 11. Balzano M. 99. D'Amico F. 9. Spalluto S. 77. Mezsargs K.
Substitutes
70. Antolini J. 12. Asperti A. (G) 18. Avena P. 30. Berretta A. 1. Cordaro L. (G) 15. Dell'Orco C. 14. De Marchi M. 21. Evangelista C. 90. Giroletti M. J. 77. Orlandi A. 24. Pavesi D. 9. Rossetti M. 8. Stronati R. 17. Tamagni M.	18. Ambrosini M. 12. Castelnuovo M. (G) 80. Di Dio F. 19. Duca T. 22. Facchini T. (G) 5. Marchetti S. 28. Pedicillo L. 61. Santarcangelo A. 10. Vacca A. 72. Vignoli M.
Coaches
Giosa A.	Belmonte N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
14', Castellano F. 🟨,
16', Tremolada M. 🟨,
31', Bassino A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', Samotti N. 🟨,
62', Mezsargs K. ↓, Santarcangelo A. ↑,
70', D'Amico F. ↓, Pedicillo L. ↑,
70', Gega E. ↓, Marchetti S. ↑,
74', Ferrandino D. 🟨,
74', Tremolada M. ↓, Stronati R. ↑,
75', Pala A. ↓, Evangelista C. ↑,
79', Corti N. ↓, De Marchi M. ↑,
85', Tessiore A. ↓, Di Dio F. ↑,
85', Spalluto S. ↓, Vacca A. ↑,
87', Bassi E. ↓, Berretta A. ↑,
88', Jaouhari Z. ↓, Rossetti M. ↑,

Preview

Pergolettese has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Folgore Caratese is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Recently, Pergolettese has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Pergolettese won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Including home match between the teams, Pergolettese won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Pergolettese	9	2	5	2	5:6	-1	11
17	Folgore Caratese	8	1	3	4	9:12	-3	6

Last Results with these Odds

Pergolettese - the odds 2.27 are the expected chance of winning is 39.66%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Pergolettese
Italian Serie C Group A
13.09.26	Novara - Pergolettese	0:1 ✺
06.09.26	Juventus U23 - Pergolettese	0:0 ✺
30.08.26	Pergolettese - Brescia	0:1 ✺
22.08.26	Cittadella - Pergolettese	2:0 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
14.08.26	Pro Vercelli - Pergolettese	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WTLLL
- US Folgore Caratese ASD
Italian Serie C Group A
13.09.26	Folgore Caratese - Alcione	2:3 ✺
07.09.26	Pro Vercelli - Folgore Caratese	1:0 ✺
31.08.26	Novara - Folgore Caratese	2:2 ✺
24.08.26	Folgore Caratese - Dolomiti Bellunesi	1:2 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
16.08.26	Giana Erminio - Folgore Caratese	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group B
06.01.16	Pergolettese - Folgore Caratese	3:1

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