Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 7

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadio Renato Curi (Perugia)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 252


	Perugia		Pianese

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.65	3.65	4.65
	1.71	3.8	4.58
	22.70	4.21	1.26	Watch
	1.66	3.52	4.72	Watch
	2.35	2.84	3.11
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.01 ↑ (2.4)	3.6 ↑ (2.8)	3.66 ↑ (3.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Perugia
23.2%

Draw
38.7%

Pianese
38.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.2%

32.7%

29.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

32%

28.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Perugia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Perugia's form might have worsened.

Pianese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Pianese's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (+15.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Perugia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pianese than the current prediction. (-9.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Pianese, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Perugia - Pianese Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Perugia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Perugia (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Perugia (2.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Perugia (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gemello L. (G) 32. Megelaitis L. 31. Tozzuolo A. 15. Dell'Orco C. 26. Calapai L. 6. Giunti G. 24. Torrasi E. 20. Tumbarello G. 98. Giraudo F. 9. Montevago D. 7. Kanoute M.	1. Filippis E. (G) 56. Masetti L. 15. Gorelli M. 16. Chesti F. 7. Peli L. 27. Bertini M. 8. Simeoni L. (C) 30. Proietto F. 33. Coccia L. 77. Martey C. 11. Bellini L.
Substitutes
11. Bacchin L. 21. Broh J. 33. Brunori G. 30. Giardino C. 4. Joselito 10. Matos 12. Moro L. (G) 99. Nwanege K. 29. Ogunseye R. 17. Terrnava D. 22. Vinti L. (G) 3. Yabre M.	5. Balde M. 12. Bertini T. (G) 23. Chiavarino M. 47. Jasharovski A. 70. Nicastro M. 9. Ongaro E. 57. Porciatti F. (G) 10. Puletto F. 25. Spinosa L. 19. Sussi C. 21. Tirelli M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
17', Masetti L. 🟨,
25', Dell'Orco C. 🟨,
29', Torrasi E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Torrasi E. ↓, Matos ↑,
53', 0 - 1, Bellini L. ⚽,
63', Giunti G. ↓, Ogunseye R. ↑,
63', Giraudo F. ↓, Yabre M. ↑,
67', Martey C. 🟨,
72', Martey C. ↓, Sussi C. ↑,
72', Proietto F. ↓, Tirelli M. ↑,
77', Calapai L. ↓, Giardino C. ↑,
86', 🟨,
87', Peli L. ↓, Puletto F. ↑,
87', Tirelli M. ↓, Balde M. ↑,
90+2', Bellini L. ↓, Ongaro E. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 18 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out and 14).

Recent form of Perugia has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Pianese has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Perugia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Perugia is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Perugia won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:4. (average 2:2).

Including home match between the teams, Perugia won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
23.09.25	Perugia - Sambenedettese	1:2 ✺
19.09.25	Ravenna - Perugia	3:2 ✺
14.09.25	Perugia - Ascoli	0:2 ✺
06.09.25	Gubbio - Perugia	1:1 ✺
30.08.25	Bra - Perugia	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LLLTT
- US Pianese ASD
Italian Serie C Group B
23.09.25	Pianese - Arezzo	2:4 ✺
20.09.25	Vis Pesaro - Pianese	0:0 ✺
13.09.25	Pianese - Sambenedettese	1:1 ✺
06.09.25	Sassari Torres - Pianese	0:2 ✺
31.08.25	Pianese - Carpi	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 LTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
22.12.24	Perugia - Pianese	1:1
24.08.24	Pianese - Perugia	3:3

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