Match Info

Date: 23 October 2021, Saturday


	Peña Sport		Sestao

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.2	2
	3.1	3.2	2.1
	3.5	3.2	1.95
	3.97	3.24	1.98
	4.05	3.36	1.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.58 ↑ (3.16)	3.24 ↑ (3.18)	1.98 ↓ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Peña Sport
25.5%

Draw
28.2%

Sestao
46.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.3%

29.1%

41.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.7%

21.5%

56.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Peña Sport has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Sestao has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peña Sport than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sestao than the current prediction. (+10.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sestao could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Peña Sport - Sestao Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Segunda RFEF ~ Group 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs)).

Peña Sport is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Sestao is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Sestao will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Peña Sport won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Peña Sport won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Peña Sport
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
16.10.21	Racing Santander B - Peña Sport	0:0 ✺
09.10.21	Peña Sport - Cayón	1:1 ✺
03.10.21	Náxara - Peña Sport	2:0 ✺
25.09.21	Ardoi - Peña Sport	1:1 ✺
19.09.21	Peña Sport - Racing Rioja	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 TTLTL
- Sestao River
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
17.10.21	Sestao - Ardoi	4:0 ✺
10.10.21	Racing Rioja - Sestao	1:1 ✺
03.10.21	Sestao - Burgos Promesas	1:1 ✺
26.09.21	Arenas Club de Getxo - Sestao	1:1 ✺
19.09.21	Sestao - San Juan	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WTTTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
22.03.14	Sestao - Peña Sport	1:0
03.11.13	Peña Sport - Sestao	0:1
12.05.13	Peña Sport - Sestao	2:1

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