Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio - Round 4

Date: 15 June 2025, Sunday

Location: Parque Federico Omar Saroldi (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Russia	Viju+ Sport
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica
Uruguay	Disney+, VTV+
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	River Plate Montevideo		Peñarol de Montevideo

	1	X	2
	6.5	4.1	1.5	Watch
	6.5	4.1	1.43
	6.3	4.05	1.45	Watch
	7.3	4.3	1.48
	6.29	4.31	1.44	Watch
	7	4	1.44
	6.87	4.13	1.47	Watch
	6.3	4.05	1.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.63 ↓ (7.5)	4.13 ↓ (4.33)	1.46 ↑ (1.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

River Plate Montevideo
14%

Draw
22.4%

Peñarol de Montevideo
63.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

12.5%

21.6%

65.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

12%

20.7%

68.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

River Plate Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Peñarol de Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for River Plate Montevideo than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Peñarol de Montevideo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

River Plate Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Peñarol (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Peñarol de Montevideo will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Correa Gonzalez F. N. (G) 4. Pertusatti Gonzalez L. O. 3. Ramos N. 13. Almeida C. (C) 21. Cabrera F. 15. Jourdan E. 22. Alfonso M. 14. De Leon F. 10. Vera A. 11. De Los Santos J. 18. Lopez I.	25. Campana M. (G) 20. Milans P. 34. Herrera N. 23. Mendez J. 15. Olivera M. (C) 5. Sosa I. 29. Remedi E. 7. Cabrera J. 10. Fernandez L. 80. David Terans 11. Silvera M.
Substitutes
19. Barone F. 29. Camejo L. 9. Correa T. 1. Frascarelli D. (G) 28. Gonzalez L. 27. Lopez I. 2. Perez F. 7. Quintana J. 23. Rodriguez F. 5. Rodriguez J.	9. Avenatti F. 50. Garcia Cardozo D. G. 2. Leo Coelho 27. Lucas Hernandez 1. Morgan Michelena K. M. (G) 30. Muhlethaler S. 6. Perez R. 4. Rodriguez J. 22. Suarez D. 32. Umpierrez L.
Coaches
Ribas J.	Aguirre D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
17', Herrera N. 🟨,
23', 0 - 1, Olivera M. ⚽,
33', Jourdan E. 🟨,
37', 0 - 2, Silvera M. ⚽,
44', Remedi E. 🟨,
45+1', De Los Santos J. 🟨,
45+4', Alfonso M. 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Remedi E. ↓, Perez R. ↑,
46', Herrera N. ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
58', Vera A. 🟨,
64', Perez R. 🟨,
68', Lopez I. ↓, Barone F. ↑,
68', Almeida C. 🟨,
72', David Terans ↓, Garcia Cardozo D. G. ↑,
72', Silvera M. ↓, Avenatti F. ↑,
72', De Los Santos J. ↓, Correa T. ↑,
78', Olivera M. ↓, Lucas Hernandez ↑,
80', 1 - 2, Barone F. ⚽,
86', Vera A. ↓, Rodriguez F. ↑,
86', Cabrera F. ↓, Camejo L. ↑,
90', 1 - 3, Cabrera J. ⚽,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 8 and 3).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, River Plate won 0.

River Plate has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Peñarol is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Peñarol has had a series of home games.

In this match, Peñarol is the clear favorite.

We predict that Peñarol will win today's game, with odds of 1.44.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, River Plate won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 11:31. (average 0.6:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, River Plate won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 5:16. (average 0.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- River Plate Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
06.06.25	Cerro - River Plate Montevideo	1:0 ✺
01.06.25	River Plate Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	1:2 ✺
25.05.25	Montevideo Wanderers - River Plate Montevideo	1:0 ✺
17.05.25	River Plate Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	0:1 ✺
04.05.25	Miramar Misiones - River Plate Montevideo	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
07.06.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	3:0 ✺
01.06.25	Cerro Largo - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
29.05.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Vélez Sársfield	0:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
24.05.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	2:0 ✺
17.05.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Montevideo City Torque	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
23.02.25	River Plate Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:1
03.11.24	River Plate Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1
14.07.24	River Plate Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:3
29.04.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	3:0
22.10.23	River Plate Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:3
18.06.23	Peñarol de Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	1:3
18.03.23	Peñarol de Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	1:0

Upcoming Matches