Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 9

Date: 29 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Campeón del Siglo (Montevideo)

Referee: Heras H. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, Disney+


	Peñarol de Montevideo		Racing Montevideo

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.3	4.75	Watch
	1.58	3.7	5.3
	1.7	3.4	5.97
	1.72	3.48	5.1	Watch
	1.73	3.2	5
	1.7	3.44	5.2	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (1.7)	3.42 ↑ (3.41)	5.22 ↓ (5.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Peñarol de Montevideo
55.1%

Draw
27.1%

Racing Montevideo
17.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.9%

27.4%

17.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.6%

26.1%

16.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Peñarol de Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Racing Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Racing Montevideo than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Peñarol de Montevideo - Racing Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: Peñarol de Montevideo will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Aguerre W. (G) 2. Escobar F. 3. Lemos M. 6. Ferreira L. 15. Olivera M. (C) 5. Remedi E. 8. Fernandez N. 77. Angulo L. 10. Fernandez L. 23. Togni G. 19. Arezo M.	12. Varese F. (G) 4. Cotugno G. (C) 3. Brazionis 13. Alvarez F. 37. Oyarzo Y. 14. De Los Santos E. 8. Cairus F. 21. Alvarez Wallace A. 39. Vazquez A. 18. Habib T. 33. Da Silva S.
Substitutes
18. Barbas G. 9. Batista F. 1. Britos S. (G) 28. Charrutti I. 80. Gonzalez F. 25. Gonzalez M. 21. Jesus Trindade 26. Madruga A. 30. Muhlethaler S. 14. Rodriguez K.	15. Cheuquepal D. 16. Da Silva E. 19. Dudok R. 17. Ferreira M. 29. Gonzalez F. 1. Machado F. (G) 81. Manzur I. 24. Perez J. 23. Sosa N. 77. Tomatis B.
Coaches
Aguirre D.	Chambian C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
32', Oyarzo Y. 🟨,
42', 0 - 1, Oyarzo Y. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Togni G. ↓, Muhlethaler S. ↑,
46', Oyarzo Y. ↓, Ferreira M. ↑,
47', 0 - 2, Vazquez A. ⚽,
52', Fernandez N. 🟨,
60', Lemos M. 🟨,
61', Habib T. ↓, Sosa N. ↑,
66', Cairus F. 🟨,
68', Cotugno G. 🟨,
73', Cairus F. ↓, Gonzalez F. ↑,
73', Da Silva S. ↓, Tomatis B. ↑,
73', Remedi E. ↓, Jesus Trindade ↑,
73', Fernandez N. ↓, Batista F. ↑,
81', Sosa N. 🟨,
86', Vazquez A. ↓, Perez J. ↑,
86', Angulo L. ↓, Gonzalez F. ↑,
90+2', 1 - 2, Olivera M. ⚽,
90+3', Varese F. 🟨,
90+5', Lemos M. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs: ) and 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Peñarol won 2.

Peñarol is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Racing is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Peñarol may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Peñarol is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Peñarol will win today's game, with odds of 1.62.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Peñarol won 10 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 40:22. (average 2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Peñarol won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:12. (average 1.5:1.1).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Penarol	9	6	2	1	15:6	9	19
9	Racing Montevideo	9	3	3	3	9:8	1	12

Last Results with these Odds

Peñarol de Montevideo - the odds 1.7 are the expected chance of winning is 54.93%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
25.03.26	Boston River - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:2 ✺
21.03.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Cerro	3:1 ✺
14.03.26	Albion Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1 ✺
07.03.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Danubio	1:1 ✺
01.03.26	Nacional Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WWWTW
- Racing Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
26.03.26	Racing Montevideo - Progreso	1:1 ✺
21.03.26	Racing Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	1:0 ✺
14.03.26	Boston River - Racing Montevideo	0:1 ✺
08.03.26	Racing Montevideo - Cerro	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
05.03.26	Boston River - Racing Montevideo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 TWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Copa de la Liga AUF
19.01.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	1:0
Uruguayan Primera Division
31.08.25	Racing Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:4
09.03.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	0:2
30.09.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	0:0
16.06.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	1:1
16.03.24	Racing Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:2
02.12.23	Peñarol de Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	1:1

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