Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Promotion Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Sa Pobla (La Puebla)


	Poblense		Numancia

	1	X	2
	2	3	3.4
	2.32	2.92	2.92
	2.42	2.87	3.07	Watch
	2.15	2.75	3.3
	2.37	2.88	3.04
	2.25	3	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↓ (2.29)	2.9 ↓ (3.1)	3.09 ↑ (3.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Poblense
39.9%

Draw
31%

Numancia
29.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.1%

29.6%

30.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.2%

28.8%

29.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Poblense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Numancia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Poblense than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Numancia than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Poblense - Numancia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Alarcon M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
61', 1 - 1, Jony ⚽,
88', 2 - 1, Pons A. ⚽,

Preview

First leg result: 1-0.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Poblense won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Poblense - the odds 2.29 are the expected chance of winning is 40.13%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Poblense
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
10.05.26	Numancia - Poblense	0:1 ✺
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 3
03.05.26	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas - Poblense	3:1 ✺
26.04.26	Poblense - Porreres	3:1 ✺
19.04.26	Terrassa - Poblense	2:3 ✺
12.04.26	Poblense - Torrent	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 WLWWW
- CD Numancia
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
10.05.26	Numancia - Poblense	0:1 ✺
03.05.26	Numancia - Marino de Luanco	1:0 ✺
26.04.26	Langreo - Numancia	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	Sámano - Numancia	0:3 ✺
12.04.26	Numancia - Real Ávila	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
10.05.26	Numancia - Poblense	0:1

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