Match Info

Division 1 - Round 4

Date: 15 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadion ROSRRiT (Siedlce)

Referee: Pskit P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	TVP Sport app, TVP Sport
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Pogoń Siedlce		Polonia Warsaw

	1	X	2
	4.20	3.70	1.70
	3.90	3.60	1.77
	4.10	3.45	1.73
	4.94	3.75	1.76
	4.34	3.78	1.76	Watch
	4.85	3.5	1.74
	4.27	3.38	1.76
	3.95	3.45	1.74
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.32 ↓ (4.49)	3.58 ↓ (3.72)	1.75 ↑ (1.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pogoń Siedlce
21.4%

Draw
25.8%

Polonia Warsaw
52.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.4%

24.6%

55%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20%

24.1%

56.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pogoń Siedlce has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Polonia Warsaw has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pogoń Siedlce than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Polonia Warsaw than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Pogoń Siedlce - Polonia Warsaw Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
57. Lemanowicz J. (G) 27. Barczak J. 26. Kendzia F. 4. Szur P. 2. Mis K. 31. Dzieciol E. 16. Poczobut B. 21. Kobusinski S. 7. Szuprytowski D. (C) 56. Demianiuk C. 9. Rosolek M.	71. Jelen M. (G) 22. Olszewski P. 16. Budnicki J. 29. Marcjanik M. 20. Olafsson D. 27. Kowalczyk S. 6. Gnaase D. (C) 17. Dadok R. 23. Skrabb S. 99. Durmus I. 9. Kostorz K.
Substitutes
14. Jakubik D. 6. Kizyma M. 22. Klimek P. 10. Makowski R. 17. Marzec M. 47. Swierczewski B. 72. Szczytniewski S. 1. Tomkiel J. (G) 95. Zielonka N.	15. Golos A. 21. Kapusta A. 2. Kuusk M. 10. Mroz M. 94. Paszkowski J. 72. Sandach A. (G) 26. Tabara K. 24. Terpilowski E. 7. Vega D.
Coaches
Nocon A.	Stokowiec P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', Kostorz K. 🟨,
30', 1 - 0, Kobusinski S. ⚽,
37', Poczobut B. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Kendzia F. 🟨,
46', Budnicki J. 🟨,
57', Mis K. 🟨,
60', Kowalczyk S. 🟨,
63', Kowalczyk S. ↓, Paszkowski J. ↑,
74', Demianiuk C. ↓, Marzec M. ↑,
77', Szuprytowski D. ↓, Makowski R. ↑,
77', Kobusinski S. ↓, Zielonka N. ↑,
79', Olafsson D. ↓, Kapusta A. ↑,
84', Rosolek M. ↓, Kizyma M. ↑,
90+2', Skrabb S. ↓, Mroz M. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pogoń Siedlce won 0.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Polonia is seen as the favorite.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Pogoń Siedlce won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 11:15. (average 1.2:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Pogoń Siedlce won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:9. (average 1.5:2.3).

Outrights of Polish Division 1 for now

Polonia Warszawa: 6.76% Pogon Siedlce: 0.41%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Polonia Warszawa	9	4	2	3	15:12	3	14
10	Pogon Siedlce	8	3	3	2	9:7	2	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pogoń Siedlce
Polish Division 1
07.08.26	Polonia Bytom - Pogoń Siedlce	2:2 ✺
01.08.26	Pogoń Siedlce - Termalica Nieciecza	1:2 ✺
25.07.26	Pogoń Siedlce - ŁKS Łódź	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
18.07.26	Radomiak Radom - Pogoń Siedlce	1:2 ✺
11.07.26	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Pogoń Siedlce	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.6 TLTWT
- Polonia Warsaw
Polish Division 1
07.08.26	Polonia Warsaw - Ruch Chorzów	1:1 ✺
01.08.26	Polonia Warsaw - Unia Skierniewice	3:1 ✺
26.07.26	Puszcza Niepołomice - Polonia Warsaw	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
15.07.26	Polonia Warsaw - Zlín	0:2 ✺
04.07.26	Wisła Płock - Polonia Warsaw	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 1
29.11.25	Polonia Warsaw - Pogoń Siedlce	2:0
20.07.25	Pogoń Siedlce - Polonia Warsaw	1:1
09.04.25	Polonia Warsaw - Pogoń Siedlce	2:1
22.09.24	Pogoń Siedlce - Polonia Warsaw	2:4
Club Friendly
06.07.24	Polonia Warsaw - Pogoń Siedlce	2:1
27.01.24	Polonia Warsaw - Pogoń Siedlce	0:2
Polish Division 2
13.11.22	Polonia Warsaw - Pogoń Siedlce	0:1

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