Match Info

Paraibano - Round 5

Date: 1 February 2026, Sunday


	Pombal		Serra Branca

	1	X	2
	6	3.8	1.45
	6.7	3.9	1.42
	6.84	4	1.4
	7.06	4.38	1.38	Watch
	7	3.8	1.4
	6.28	3.98	1.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.65 ↑ (6.41)	3.98 ↓ (4.08)	1.43 ↑ (1.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pombal
13.7%

Draw
22.8%

Serra Branca
63.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

14.1%

22.1%

63.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.7%

21.4%

65.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pombal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Serra Branca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

The ML Model estimate for Pombal aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Serra Branca than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Pombal - Serra Branca Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
	1. Bruno Fuso (G)
	23. Bruno
	8. Gustavo
	11. Ian Augusto
	2. Igor
	14. Jadson
	19. Jefferson Victor
	5. Junior Dinde
	13. Luiz
	10. Marcelo Toscano
	7. Venicio
Substitutes
	12. Allan (G)
	15. Bedeu
	18. Bilao
	25. Charles
	9. Diego Ceara
	16. do Nascimento Sousa J. K.
	6. Franca
	30. Gleibson (G)
	22. Maicon
	3. Nascimento J.
	20. Pedro Vitor B. d. S.
	17. Sousa Tibiri

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
20', Italo 🟨,
21', Gustavo 🟨,
28', Ian Augusto 🟨,
32', 1 - 0, Jalison ⚽,
39', 1 - 1, Marcelo Toscano ⚽,
43', 2 - 1, Manu ⚽,
45+7', Bruno ↓, Franca ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Venicio ↓, Pedro Vitor B. d. S. ↑,
48', Raphael Paraiba 🟨,
54', Ian Augusto ↓, Bilao ↑,
57', 3 - 1, Manu ⚽,
59', Bruno Fuso 🟨,
62', Ian Augusto ↓, Maicon ↑,
62', Jefferson Victor ↓, Diego Ceara ↑,
65', Aguada C. ↓, Raphael Paraiba ↑,
70', Guilherme ↓, Henrique Santos Pereira O. ↑,
70', Cleiton ↓, Italo ↑,
82', Ivyrson Cardoso da Silva N. ↓, Fernando Heilmann A. ↑,
82', Felipinho ↓, Sebastiani F. ↑,
90+9', Jadson 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 10 in the zone Relegation ~ Paraibano 2 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Paraibano (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Pombal has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Serra Branca is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Pombal may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Serra Branca has had a series of home games.

In this match, Serra Branca is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Pombal won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 1.5:2.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pombal EC
Brazilian Campeonato Paraibano
28.01.26	Botafogo PB - Pombal	4:0 ✺
25.01.26	Pombal - Campinense	2:2 ✺
22.01.26	Pombal - Treze	1:2 ✺
18.01.26	Nacional de Patos - Pombal	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
10.01.26	Pombal - Sousa	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LTLLL
- Serra Branca EC
Brazilian Campeonato Paraibano
29.01.26	Serra Branca - Atlético Cajazeirense de Desportos	1:0 ✺
24.01.26	Esporte de Patos - Serra Branca	0:2 ✺
21.01.26	Serra Branca - Sousa	2:1 ✺
18.01.26	Serra Branca - Treze	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
30.12.25	Serra Branca - Jaguar	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paraibano
20.01.25	Serra Branca - Pombal	2:1
01.02.24	Serra Branca - Pombal	3:2

Pombal - Serra Branca: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide