Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 1

Date: 29 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio de O Couto (Ourense)


	UD Ourense		Ponferradina

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.2	2.1
	3.00	3.00	2.15
	3.15	3.05	2.18
	3.34	3.05	2.27
	3.25	3.13	2.26	Watch
	3.25	2.75	2.2
	3.19	3.08	2.17
	3.05	3.05	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.17 ↑ (2.54)	3.04 ↓ (3.21)	2.19 ↓ (2.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

UD Ourense
28.6%

Draw
29.8%

Ponferradina
41.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.8%

28.3%

35.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

UD Ourense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that UD Ourense's form might have worsened.

Ponferradina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ponferradina's recent form is better than expected.

UD Ourense - Ponferradina Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vizoso M. (G) 19. Pardo S. 5. Puime L. 4. Labrada J. 3. Cabrera J. 34. Tejon D. 25. Bastida A. 10. Gandarillas M. 14. Martinez R. 7. Ferreiro D. 9. Sanchez R.	1. Dominguez A. (G) 22. Hernandez E. 5. Undabarrena E. (C) 4. Jelbat A. 3. Nieto S. 6. San Emeterio F. 8. Molina A. 7. Calderon C. 19. Munoz P. 12. Sabroso U. 21. Faye S.
Substitutes
15. Baldrich S. 23. Curras R. 17. Dominguez X. . Gonzalez N. 20. Irazu I. 13. Rielo B. (G) 26. Varela M. 2. Varo	13. Alvin (G) 2. Andujar D. 14. Aranda J. L. 11. Bari Q. 17. Chibozo J. 27. Iriarte X. 23. Roig A. 16. Tounkara N. 10. Valle B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', Martinez R. 🟨,
55', 🟨,
64', 🟨,
67', 🟨,
72', Puime L. ↓, Gonzalez N. ↑,
72', Martinez R. ↓, Curras R. ↑,
78', 0 - 1, Faye S. ⚽,
82', 🟨,
83', Tejon D. ↓, Dominguez X. ↑,
83', Pardo S. ↓, Varo ↑,
90', Sabroso U. ↓, Tounkara N. ↑,

Preview

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, UD Ourense won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Including home match between the teams, UD Ourense won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Ponferradina	6	3	2	1	5:3	2	11
19	UD Ourense	6	0	2	4	2:10	-8	2

Last Results with these Odds

Ponferradina - the odds 2.54 are the expected chance of winning is 35.85%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Ourense
Club Friendly
19.08.26	UD Ourense - Barco	2:0 ✺
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
31.05.26	Conquense - UD Ourense	0:2 ✺
24.05.26	UD Ourense - Conquense	1:0 ✺
16.05.26	UD Ourense - Reus FC Reddis	2:1 ✺
09.05.26	Reus FC Reddis - UD Ourense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 WWWWT
- SD Ponferradina
Club Friendly
19.08.26	Ponferradina - Real Madrid Castilla	2:2 ✺
05.08.26	Ponferradina - Unionistas de Salamanca	1:2 ✺
01.08.26	Ponferradina - Real Avilés	1:1 ✺
29.07.26	Real Oviedo - Ponferradina	4:0 ✺
Primera RFEF Promotion Play
20.06.26	Celta de Vigo B - Ponferradina	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 TLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
24.07.19	UD Ourense - Ponferradina	1:3

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