Match Info

Serie B - Round 16

Date: 2 July 2026, Thursday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Fernandes de Lima F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Fortaleza		Ponte Preta

	1	X	2
	1.22	5.50	12.00	Watch
	1.26	5.50	9.75
	1.24	5.60	11.50	Watch
	1.25	6.10	13.98
	1.29	5.25	10.21	Watch
	1.22	6.00	13.00
	1.25	5.48	11.40	Watch
	1.26	5.40	10.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.25 ↓ (1.36)	5.6 ↑ (4.6)	11.48 ↑ (8.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fortaleza
75.1%

Draw
16.7%

Ponte Preta
8.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.7%

20.3%

11%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.9%

13%

17.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortaleza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fortaleza's performance.

Ponte Preta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (-31.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fortaleza that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponte Preta than the current prediction. (+9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ponte Preta could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	20%	20%

Fortaleza - Ponte Preta Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Fortaleza will win (votes: 4 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (1.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (1.31) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5 - over (1.03) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Joao Ricardo (C) 13. Mauricio Junior 4. Luan Freitas 3. Lucas Gazal 18. Fuentes G. 5. Pierre 31. Welliton 75. Rodriguinho 29. Rodrigo 32. Luiz Fernando 9. Miritello J. B.	1. Guilherme Viana (G) 22. Thalys 23. Palacios S. 3. Lucas Cunha 44. Marcio Silva 32. Kevyson 26. Baianinho 10. Elvis 13. Diego Porfirio 21. Brandao 14. Danilo Barcelos (C)
Substitutes
33. Kaua Rocha 10. Lucas Crispim 88. Lucas Sasha 38. Lucca Prior 15. Magrao (G) 22. Mailton 77. Paulo Baya 8. Ronald 37. Ryan 25. Vinicius Silvestre (G)	18. David da Hora 4. Diego M. L. 7. Diego Tavares 20. Gustavo Almeida 35. Gustavo Telles 19. Jonathan Cafu 6. Juan Rodrigues 90. Rodriguinho 30. Vinicius Ferrari (G)
Coaches
Thiago Carpini	Marcio Zanardi

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
43', Luiz Fernando 🟨,
43', Palacios S. 🟨,
45', Baianinho 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Baianinho ↓, Diego Tavares ↑,
54', Pierre 🟨,
60', 1 - 0, Miritello J. B. ⚽, Luiz Fernando (A),
63', Pierre ↓, Lucas Sasha ↑,
64', Mauricio Junior ↓, Lucca Prior ↑,
64', Diego Porfirio ↓, David da Hora ↑,
66', Lucas Gazal 🟨,
76', Kevyson ↓, Juan Rodrigues ↑,
78', Welliton ↓, Paulo Baya ↑,
79', Rodriguinho ↓, Mailton ↑,
82', Brandao ↓, Rodriguinho ↑,
83', Marcio Silva ↓, Jonathan Cafu ↑,
84', 2 - 0, Mailton ⚽, Lucas Sasha (A),
85', Rodrigo ↓, Ryan ↑,
89', Diego Tavares 🟨,
90+4', Lucca Prior 🟨,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 7 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

Fortaleza has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ponte Preta is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Fortaleza is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Fortaleza: Cardona T. (Muscle Injury) Vitinho (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Ponte Preta: Andre Lima (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Fortaleza: Bruninho (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Ponte Preta: Murilo (Injury) Rodrigo Souza (Inactive) Saravia Salvia R. A. (Inactive)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Fortaleza won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Fortaleza	32	15	11	6	37:27	10	56
20	Ponte Preta ✔	32	3	4	25	17:68	-51	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Serie B
28.06.26	Fortaleza - Sport Recife	2:1 ✺
21.06.26	CRB Maceio - Fortaleza	1:1 ✺
16.06.26	Fortaleza - América Mineiro	0:3 ✺
09.06.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Fortaleza	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
06.06.26	Vitória Salvador - Fortaleza	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WTLWL
- AA Ponte Preta
Brazilian Serie B
28.06.26	Atlético Goianiense - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
22.06.26	Ponte Preta - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:2 ✺
14.06.26	Juventude - Ponte Preta	3:0 ✺
09.06.26	Ponte Preta - Cuiabá	1:2 ✺
01.06.26	Ponte Preta - Botafogo SP	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
26.10.18	Fortaleza - Ponte Preta	1:1
08.07.18	Ponte Preta - Fortaleza	2:0

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