Match Info

Cymru South - Round 6

Date: 5 September 2025, Friday

Location: USW Sports Park (Pontypridd)


	Pontypridd United		Carmarthen Town

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.8	1.8
	3.44	3.86	1.81
	3.56	3.68	1.83
	2.9	3.5	2.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.33 ↑ (2.91)	3.71 ↑ (3.41)	1.9 ↓ (2.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 9.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pontypridd United
27.4%

Draw
24.5%

Carmarthen Town
48.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.1%

26.5%

42.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.5%

25.9%

43.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pontypridd United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Carmarthen Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Carmarthen Town's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pontypridd United than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carmarthen Town than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Pontypridd United - Carmarthen Town Predictions

Users Predictions: Carmarthen Town will win (11 of 11 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Carmarthen Town will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
38', 1 - 0, Jones J. ⚽,
45+3', 2 - 0, Jones J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
65', 2 - 1, Reffell K. ⚽,
67', 3 - 1, Johnson S. ⚽,
84', Harling L. 🟥,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 15 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier).

Pontypridd has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Carmarthen Town is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Carmarthen Town will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Pontypridd won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 1.5:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Pontypridd won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pontypridd United
Welsh Cymru South
25.08.25	Caerau Ely - Pontypridd United	2:0 ✺
22.08.25	Pontypridd United - Cardiff Draconians	1:2 ✺
16.08.25	Aberystwyth Town - Pontypridd United	0:0 ✺
08.08.25	Pontypridd United - Ynyshir Albions	2:3 ✺
Welsh League Cup
02.08.25	Cardiff Metropolitan - Pontypridd United	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LLTLL
- Carmarthen Town
Welsh Cymru South
25.08.25	Carmarthen Town - Baglan Dragons	0:0 ✺
22.08.25	Carmarthen Town - Aberystwyth Town	1:0 ✺
16.08.25	Llantwit Major - Carmarthen Town	0:0 ✺
09.08.25	Carmarthen Town - Cardiff Draconians	2:1 ✺
26.07.25	Cwmbran Celtic - Carmarthen Town	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 TWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
07.03.25	Pontypridd United - Carmarthen Town	1:3
09.11.24	Carmarthen Town - Pontypridd United	0:1
Welsh League Cup
06.08.22	Pontypridd United - Carmarthen Town	2:0
Welsh Cymru South
30.04.22	Carmarthen Town - Pontypridd United	0:2

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