Match Info

Cymru South - Round 4

Date: 22 August 2025, Friday

Location: Richmond Park (Carmarthen)


	Carmarthen Town		Aberystwyth Town

	1	X	2
	1.82	3.7	3.35
	1.86	3.82	3.5
	1.87	3.75	3.36
	2.15	3.8	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↓ (2.12)	3.77 ↓ (3.83)	3.27 ↑ (2.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carmarthen Town
47.6%

Draw
24.3%

Aberystwyth Town
28.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

23.8%

33.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

23.4%

32.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carmarthen Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Aberystwyth Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Aberystwyth Town might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carmarthen Town than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aberystwyth Town than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Carmarthen Town - Aberystwyth Town Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Carmarthen Town (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', Weaver M. 🟥,
41', 1 - 0, Cummings L. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Carmarthen Town won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Carmarthen Town won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 34:38. (average 1.7:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Carmarthen Town won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:21. (average 1.4:2.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carmarthen Town
Welsh Cymru South
16.08.25	Llantwit Major - Carmarthen Town	0:0 ✺
09.08.25	Carmarthen Town - Cardiff Draconians	2:1 ✺
26.07.25	Cwmbran Celtic - Carmarthen Town	0:4 ✺
Welsh League Cup
19.07.25	Carmarthen Town - Swansea City U21	1:4 ✺
Club Friendly
15.07.25	Carmarthen Town - Briton Ferry Llansawel	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TWWLT
- Aberystwyth Town
Welsh Cymru South
16.08.25	Aberystwyth Town - Pontypridd United	0:0 ✺
09.08.25	Aberystwyth Town - Baglan Dragons	2:1 ✺
Welsh League Cup
02.08.25	Barry Town United - Aberystwyth Town	2:1 ✺
Welsh Cymru South
26.07.25	Llantwit Major - Aberystwyth Town	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
19.07.25	Caernarfon Town - Aberystwyth Town	7:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh League Cup
29.10.19	Carmarthen Town - Aberystwyth Town	0:3
Welsh Cymru Premier
18.10.19	Carmarthen Town - Aberystwyth Town	0:0
16.08.19	Aberystwyth Town - Carmarthen Town	3:2
26.04.19	Carmarthen Town - Aberystwyth Town	6:2
08.03.19	Aberystwyth Town - Carmarthen Town	3:2
30.11.18	Aberystwyth Town - Carmarthen Town	1:1
22.09.18	Carmarthen Town - Aberystwyth Town	2:2

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