Match Info

Cymru South - Round 5

Date: 25 August 2025, Monday

Location: Richmond Park (Carmarthen)


	Carmarthen Town		Baglan Dragons

	1	X	2
	1.78	3.05	4.55
	1.95	2.83	4.52
	1.81	3.67	4.09
	1.55	4.3	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↑ (1.67)	3.46 ↓ (3.8)	4.59 ↑ (4.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carmarthen Town
52.7%

Draw
27%

Baglan Dragons
20.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.3%

23.9%

21.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.8%

23.3%

21.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carmarthen Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Baglan Dragons has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carmarthen Town than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Baglan Dragons than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Carmarthen Town - Baglan Dragons Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Carmarthen Town is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Baglan Dragons has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Carmarthen Town is considered a favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Carmarthen Town won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:5. (average 1.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Carmarthen Town won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carmarthen Town
Welsh Cymru South
22.08.25	Carmarthen Town - Aberystwyth Town	1:0 ✺
16.08.25	Llantwit Major - Carmarthen Town	0:0 ✺
09.08.25	Carmarthen Town - Cardiff Draconians	2:1 ✺
26.07.25	Cwmbran Celtic - Carmarthen Town	0:4 ✺
Welsh League Cup
19.07.25	Carmarthen Town - Swansea City U21	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WTWWL
- Baglan Dragons
Welsh Cymru South
17.08.25	Baglan Dragons - Newport City	3:3 ✺
09.08.25	Aberystwyth Town - Baglan Dragons	2:1 ✺
27.07.25	Baglan Dragons - Pontypridd United	3:0 ✺
Welsh League Cup
20.07.25	Newport City - Baglan Dragons	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
09.07.25	Cefn Cribwr - Baglan Dragons	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
05.04.25	Baglan Dragons - Carmarthen Town	1:1
09.08.24	Carmarthen Town - Baglan Dragons	3:2
01.04.24	Baglan Dragons - Carmarthen Town	2:2
08.08.23	Carmarthen Town - Baglan Dragons	0:0

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