Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal 2 - Round 8

Date: 23 October 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Luis Filipe Menezes (Vila Nova de Gaia)

Referee: Macedo C. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Porto Canal


	Porto B		Mafra

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.3	3.7
	1.9	3.2	3.4
	2	3.4	3.6
	2.04	3.53	3.78
	2.01	3.38	3.67	Watch
	1.95	3.3	3.4
	2.01	3.45	3.6
	2	3.4	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↓ (2.12)	3.37 ↓ (3.45)	3.59 ↑ (3.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Porto B
46.7%

Draw
27.5%

Mafra
25.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.5%

27.3%

28.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.3%

27.8%

27.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Porto B has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Mafra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Porto B than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mafra than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	66.7%	0%

Porto B - Mafra Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Porto B will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
51. Fernandes D. (G) 54. Ribeiro A. 73. Bras G. 44. Felipe Silva 76. Rodrigues D. 88. Andrade D. 2. Castro (C) 90. Pinto Martins G. 47. Alarcon A. 95. Cande A. 98. Abraham M.	1. Fraisl M. (G) 2. Texel P. 4. Passi B. 45. Kamara A. 5. Beni D. 3. Chriso 66. Capitao D. 10. Fale M. 20. Maiga Y. 15. Guilherme (C) 9. Nibe A.
Substitutes
59. Andrade T. 78. Meireles J. 77. Monteiro R. 68. Oliveira A. 91. Ribeiro G. (G) 96. Sousa F. 49. Sousa G. 92. Teixeira J. 63. Vinhas D.	18. Fabinho 80. Goncalves V. 19. Iheanacho S. 17. Kolawole J. 22. Lemos F. (G) 7. Matos R. 6. Pereira P. 21. Precatado J. 32. Rodrigo Freitas
Coaches
Brandao J.	Vaz Pinto C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
25', 0 - 1, Guilherme ⚽, Beni D. (A),
45+5', Capitao D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', Fraisl M. 🟨,
60', Abraham M. ↓, Sousa G. ↑,
60', Castro ↓, Teixeira J. ↑,
60', Pinto Martins G. ↓, Meireles J. ↑,
66', Fale M. ↓, Iheanacho S. ↑,
66', Kamara A. ↓, Matos R. ↑,
69', Ribeiro A. ↓, Monteiro R. ↑,
74', Chriso ↓, Goncalves V. ↑,
79', Iheanacho S. 🟨,
81', 1 - 1, Alarcon A. ⚽,
83', Nibe A. ↓, Kolawole J. ↑,
83', Capitao D. ↓, Rodrigo Freitas ↑,
83', Cande A. ↓, Andrade T. ↑,
90+2', 2 - 1, Alarcon A. (Pen),
90+7', Bras G. 🟨,

Preview

This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3 and 15).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Porto B won 1.

One and the other team are in an unacceptable form.

Porto B could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Porto B will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Porto B won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 22:17 (average 1.7:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Porto B won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 11:5 (average 1.8:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Porto B
Portuguese Liga 2
05.10.24	Marítimo - Porto B	1:0 ✺
29.09.24	Porto B - Felgueiras	0:2 ✺
15.09.24	Penafiel - Porto B	1:1 ✺
01.09.24	Porto B - Leiria	1:1 ✺
25.08.24	Académico de Viseu - Porto B	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LLTTL
- CD Mafra
Taça de Portugal
19.10.24	Oliveira Hospital - Mafra	1:0 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
06.10.24	Mafra - Alverca	1:1 ✺
30.09.24	Vizela - Mafra	3:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
21.09.24	Montijo - Mafra	1:2 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
15.09.24	Mafra - Tondela	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
11.02.24	Porto B - Mafra	1:1
02.09.23	Mafra - Porto B	2:1
05.03.23	Porto B - Mafra	1:1
10.09.22	Mafra - Porto B	0:1
12.02.22	Mafra - Porto B	3:2
12.09.21	Porto B - Mafra	3:1
29.03.21	Mafra - Porto B	0:4

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