Match Info

Serie D - Round 6

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday


	Porto Velho		Independência

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.2	6
	1.39	4.15	6.5
	1.41	4.07	6.52
	1.46	3.93	6.89	Watch
	1.4	3.8	7
	1.38	4.1	7.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↓ (1.45)	4.04 ↑ (3.8)	6.74 ↑ (6.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Porto Velho
64.2%

Draw
22.4%

Independência
13.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.1%

23.7%

14.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.8%

23.2%

14.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Porto Velho has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Independência has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Porto Velho than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independência than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Porto Velho - Independência Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, Ruan Costa ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
55', 2 - 0, Ruan Costa ⚽,
60', 2 - 1, Lemos M. ⚽,

Preview

Porto Velho has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Independência has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Independência may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Porto Velho is the obvious favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Porto Velho won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Porto Velho EC
Brazilian Copa Norte
06.05.26	Nacional AM - Porto Velho	2:1 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie D
02.05.26	Independência - Porto Velho	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Norte
29.04.26	Porto Velho - Águia de Marabá	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie D
25.04.26	Guaporé - Porto Velho	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	Porto Velho - Araguaína	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 LTTLL
- Independência FC
Brazilian Serie D
02.05.26	Independência - Porto Velho	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Norte
29.04.26	Independência - Grêmio Atlético Sampaio	3:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie D
26.04.26	Araguaína - Independência	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Norte
15.04.26	Paysandu - Independência	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie D
12.04.26	Independência - Humaitá	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 TWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
02.05.26	Independência - Porto Velho	1:1

Porto Velho - Independência: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide