Match Info

Carioca - Relegation Group - Round 1

Date: 11 February 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Luso Brasileiro (Rio de Janeiro)


	Portuguesa RJ		Nova Iguaçu

	1	X	2
	2.87	2.82	2.72
	2.92	2.74	2.76	Watch
	2.8	2.6	2.6
	2.74	2.75	2.62
	3	2.83	2.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.87 ↑ (2.37)	2.75 ↓ (2.85)	2.67 ↓ (3.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portuguesa RJ
32.1%

Draw
33.5%

Nova Iguaçu
34.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.7%

32.2%

29%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.2%

28.5%

32.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portuguesa RJ has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Portuguesa RJ's form might have worsened.

Nova Iguaçu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Nova Iguaçu's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portuguesa RJ than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nova Iguaçu than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Portuguesa RJ - Nova Iguaçu Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Douglas Borges (G) 22. Luis Gustavo 93. Henrique C. 13. Lucas Costa (C) 33. Guilherme Santos 21. Willian 17. Gutemberg 10. Romarinho 18. Rhuan Silveira 14. Chay 31. Leo Muchacho	31. Mota (G) 4. Augusto 2. Davi Soares 6. Sidney Pages (C) 3. Wender 8. Leo Rafael 5. Jorge Pedra 7. Xandinho 10. Lucas Cruz 11. Iago Lacerda 9. Vini Charopem
Substitutes
16. Albert 23. Alexandre Azizi (G) 2. Alex Reinaldo 7. Anderson Rosa 27. Bruno Mota 11. Guilherme Silveira 8. Joao Paulo 19. Lohan 30. Patrick 9. Uelber 12. Vinicius Barreta (G) 25. Vitinho	21. Alexandre Balbino 13. Arthur Neves 1. Arthur Vidal (G) 20. Bill 14. Daniel Zavoli 19. Luan Capanni 12. Matheus Miranda (G) 22. Pedro Silva 15. Pedro Thomaz 17. Rickelme Lopes 18. Thomasel 16. Ze Gabriel
Coaches
Sampaio A.	Carlos Vitor

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
20', 0 - 1, Leo Rafael ⚽, Wender (A),
40', Romarinho ↓, Anderson Rosa ↑,
41', Lucas Cruz 🟨,
44', Chay 🟨,
45+4', Anderson Rosa 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Rhuan Silveira ↓, Lohan ↑,
46', Guilherme Santos ↓, Vitinho ↑,
46', Chay ↓, Joao Paulo ↑,
48', Sidney Pages 🟨,
55', Augusto 🟨,
62', Iago Lacerda ↓, Pedro Thomaz ↑,
64', 1 - 1, Lohan ⚽, Lucas Costa (A),
73', Jorge Pedra ↓, Rickelme Lopes ↑,
74', Leo Rafael ↓, Luan Capanni ↑,
81', Gutemberg 🟨,
86', Gutemberg ↓, Bruno Mota ↑,
88', Vini Charopem 🟨,
88', Vini Charopem ↓, Thomasel ↑,
88', Lucas Cruz ↓, Ze Gabriel ↑,
89', Luis Gustavo 🟥,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Portuguesa RJ won 2.

In recent matches, Portuguesa RJ has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Nova Iguaçu is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Nova Iguaçu may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Portuguesa RJ won 5 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 15:13. (average 0.9:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Portuguesa RJ won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 1.2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portuguesa RJ
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
07.02.26	Portuguesa RJ - Nova Iguaçu	1:0 ✺
26.01.26	Madureira - Portuguesa RJ	0:2 ✺
22.01.26	Boavista - Portuguesa RJ	3:2 ✺
18.01.26	Portuguesa RJ - Maricá	0:1 ✺
15.01.26	Portuguesa RJ - Botafogo RJ	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWLLL
- Nova Iguaçu
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
07.02.26	Portuguesa RJ - Nova Iguaçu	1:0 ✺
30.01.26	Nova Iguaçu - Bangu	1:2 ✺
26.01.26	Nova Iguaçu - Volta Redonda	2:2 ✺
22.01.26	Nova Iguaçu - Fluminense	2:3 ✺
18.01.26	Vasco da Gama - Nova Iguaçu	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 LLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
07.02.26	Portuguesa RJ - Nova Iguaçu	1:0
02.02.25	Portuguesa RJ - Nova Iguaçu	0:1
Brazilian Serie D
06.07.24	Nova Iguaçu - Portuguesa RJ	1:0
11.05.24	Portuguesa RJ - Nova Iguaçu	1:0
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
24.02.24	Portuguesa RJ - Nova Iguaçu	1:2
Brazilian Serie D
01.07.23	Portuguesa RJ - Nova Iguaçu	2:2
27.05.23	Nova Iguaçu - Portuguesa RJ	1:1

Portuguesa RJ - Nova Iguaçu: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide