Match Info

Carioca - Taca Guanabara - Round 1

Date: 15 January 2026, Thursday


	Portuguesa RJ		Botafogo RJ

	1	X	2
	1.98	3.35	3.65
	1.99	3.4	3.67	Watch
	1.95	3.1	3.3
	1.99	3.46	3.59
	1.9	3.4	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↓ (4.86)	3.34 ↓ (3.43)	3.68 ↑ (1.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portuguesa RJ
47.2%

Draw
27.7%

Botafogo RJ
25.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.9%

26.8%

54.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portuguesa RJ has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+28.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Portuguesa RJ's performance.

Botafogo RJ has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-29.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Botafogo RJ might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	21.4%	7.1%

Portuguesa RJ - Botafogo RJ Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Portuguesa RJ will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%). Botafogo will win (votes: 1 - 7.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 21.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Portuguesa RJ: 47.7% – 95.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Portuguesa RJ (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Botafogo (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Portuguesa RJ (2.05) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Portuguesa RJ (1.34) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 17 Selected Experts predict this event. Portuguesa RJ (votes: 14 - 82.4%). Botafogo (votes: 1 - 5.9%). Tie (votes: 2 - 11.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Douglas Borges (G) 2. Savio 93. Henrique C. 13. Lucas Costa (C) 33. Guilherme Santos 8. Joao Paulo 5. Henrique Rocha 27. Bruno Mota 18. Rhuan Silveira 20. Guilherme Silveira 19. Leo Muchacho	1. Raul Steffens (G) 2. Kadu Santos 3. Danilo 4. Justino G. 6. Gabriel Abdias 8. Bernardo Valim 5. Marquinhos 7. Kauan Toledo 11. Januario F. 10. Caio Valle 9. Arthur Izaque
Substitutes
16. Albert 30. Alex Moretti 7. Anderson Rosa 14. Chay 15. Gustavo Aguiar 17. Gutemberg 3. Leo Cruz 22. Luis Gustavo 10. Romarinho 9. Uelber 12. Vinicius Barreta (G) 21. Willian	17. Barrera J. 16. Camilo L. 20. Lemos R. 13. Lira J. 12. Loor C. (G) 18. Matheus Martins 19. Nery D. 15. Newton 14. Ponte M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', Januario F. 🟨,
24', Leo Muchacho ↓, Anderson Rosa ↑,
28', Henrique Rocha 🟨,
29', Bernardo Valim 🟨,
39', Kadu Santos 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Savio ↓, Luis Gustavo ↑,
52', Anderson Rosa 🟨,
54', 0 - 1, Caio Valle (Penalty Awarded),
59', Januario F. ↓, Matheus Martins ↑,
60', Caio Valle ↓, Barrera J. ↑,
60', Rhuan Silveira ↓, Uelber ↑,
60', Henrique Rocha ↓, Chay ↑,
61', Joao Paulo 🟨,
68', Kadu Santos ↓, Ponte M. ↑,
68', Marquinhos ↓, Newton ↑,
73', Justino G. 🟨,
75', Joao Paulo ↓, Albert ↑,
81', Guilherme Santos 🟨,
81', Kauan Toledo 🟨,
86', Justino G. ↓, Camilo L. ↑,
90+2', 0 - 2, Camilo L. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Portuguesa RJ won 1.

Botafogo is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Botafogo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Portuguesa RJ won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 14:22. (average 1.2:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Portuguesa RJ won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:7. (average 1.5:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portuguesa RJ
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
11.01.26	Flamengo - Portuguesa RJ	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Rio
20.09.25	Portuguesa RJ - America RJ	2:0 ✺
14.09.25	America RJ - Portuguesa RJ	1:0 ✺
06.09.25	Portuguesa RJ - Maricá	1:1 ✺
03.09.25	Maricá - Portuguesa RJ	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.5 TWLTW
- Botafogo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
07.12.25	Botafogo RJ - Fortaleza	4:2 ✺
04.12.25	Cruzeiro - Botafogo RJ	2:2 ✺
30.11.25	Corinthians - Botafogo RJ	2:2 ✺
22.11.25	Botafogo RJ - Grêmio	3:2 ✺
18.11.25	Botafogo RJ - Sport Recife	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
14.01.25	Botafogo RJ - Portuguesa RJ	2:0
30.01.24	Botafogo RJ - Portuguesa RJ	1:1
27.03.23	Botafogo RJ - Portuguesa RJ	3:1
18.03.23	Portuguesa RJ - Botafogo RJ	0:0
08.03.23	Botafogo RJ - Portuguesa RJ	0:1
27.02.22	Portuguesa RJ - Botafogo RJ	5:3
04.04.21	Botafogo RJ - Portuguesa RJ	1:1

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