Match Info

Carioca - Relegation Group - Round 5

Date: 2 March 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Luso Brasileiro (Rio de Janeiro)


	Portuguesa RJ		Sampaio Corrêa FE

	1	X	2
	1.82	3.25	4.35
	1.74	3.46	4.87
	1.86	3.39	4.21	Watch
	1.73	3.1	4.5
	1.75	3.4	4.89
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↓ (2.03)	3.32 ↑ (3.13)	4.56 ↑ (3.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portuguesa RJ
51.9%

Draw
27.8%

Sampaio Corrêa FE
20.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.4%

28.8%

26.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.4%

29.5%

26.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portuguesa RJ has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Portuguesa RJ's performance.

Sampaio Corrêa FE has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sampaio Corrêa FE might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portuguesa RJ than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Portuguesa RJ that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sampaio Corrêa FE than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sampaio Corrêa FE could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Portuguesa RJ - Sampaio Corrêa FE Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Portuguesa RJ (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Douglas Borges (G) 2. Lenon 93. Henrique C. 13. Lucas Costa (C) 33. Guilherme Santos 5. Henrique Rocha 17. Gutemberg 7. Anderson Rosa 30. Wellington Cezar 11. Guilherme Silveira 19. Lohan	1. Eduardo (G) 2. Lucas Carvalho 3. Daniel Nunes 4. Lucas Marreta 6. Guilherme 10. Rodrigo Andrade 5. Pablo 11. Cruz Manhaes O. 7. Ewerton Potiguar 8. Luan Gama 9. Elias (C)
Substitutes
6. Alex Moretti 66. Alex Reinaldo 16. Elicley 15. Gustavo Aguiar 20. Jobert 31. Leo Muchacho 4. Patrick 18. Rhuan Silveira 10. Romarinho 9. Uelber 12. Vinicius Barreta (G) 21. Willian	20. Alan 21. Caique 31. Caua 14. Gabriel Agu 16. Joao Martini 15. Magno 22. Magrao 18. Matheus Goiano 19. Natan 17. Paulo Henrique 13. Ryan Andrade 12. Ze Carlos (G)
Coaches
Sampaio A.	Felipe Surian

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', Elias (Penalty Awarded),
21', 1 - 0, Lohan ⚽, Lenon (A),
26', Luan Gama 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', Wellington Cezar 🟨,
64', Rodrigo Andrade ↓, Paulo Henrique ↑,
65', Ewerton Potiguar ↓, Alan ↑,
65', Guilherme Silveira ↓, Rhuan Silveira ↑,
66', 2 - 0, Rhuan Silveira ⚽,
77', Lucas Marreta 🟨,
78', Anderson Rosa 🟨,
80', Anderson Rosa ↓, Willian ↑,
80', Henrique Rocha ↓, Romarinho ↑,
81', Pablo 🟨,
82', Elias ↓, Matheus Goiano ↑,
82', Cruz Manhaes O. ↓, Magrao ↑,
86', Pablo ↓, Magno ↑,
90+2', Lohan ↓, Patrick ↑,
90+2', Gutemberg ↓, Uelber ↑,

Preview

In recent matches, Portuguesa RJ has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Sampaio Corrêa is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Sampaio Corrêa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Sampaio Corrêa has had a series of home games.

In this match, Portuguesa RJ is the team to beat.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Portuguesa RJ won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:8. (average 1.4:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Portuguesa RJ won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portuguesa RJ
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
26.02.26	Nova Iguaçu - Portuguesa RJ	1:1 ✺
23.02.26	Maricá - Portuguesa RJ	0:2 ✺
20.02.26	Sampaio Corrêa FE - Portuguesa RJ	3:2 ✺
11.02.26	Portuguesa RJ - Nova Iguaçu	1:1 ✺
07.02.26	Portuguesa RJ - Nova Iguaçu	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 TWLTW
- Sampaio Corrêa FE
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
26.02.26	Sampaio Corrêa FE - Maricá	2:1 ✺
23.02.26	Sampaio Corrêa FE - Nova Iguaçu	1:1 ✺
20.02.26	Sampaio Corrêa FE - Portuguesa RJ	3:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
17.02.26	Sampaio Corrêa FE - Desportiva Ferroviaria	1:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
12.02.26	Maricá - Sampaio Corrêa FE	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
20.02.26	Sampaio Corrêa FE - Portuguesa RJ	3:2
22.02.25	Sampaio Corrêa FE - Portuguesa RJ	3:1
24.01.24	Portuguesa RJ - Sampaio Corrêa FE	1:0
Brazilian Copa Rio
06.09.23	Portuguesa RJ - Sampaio Corrêa FE	2:2
30.08.23	Sampaio Corrêa FE - Portuguesa RJ	0:1

Portuguesa RJ - Sampaio Corrêa FE: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide