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Current Win Probability
Pro Patria 28.1%
Draw 28.8%
Novara 43.1%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
37.7%
30.2%
32.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
38.8%
29.3%
31.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Pro Patria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Pro Patria's form might have worsened.
Novara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Novara's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pro Patria than the current prediction. (+10.7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pro Patria, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Novara than the current prediction. (-11.9%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Novara, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Pro Patria - Novara Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
40. Rovida W. (G) 4. Reggiori P. 39. Motolese M. 26. Masi A. 7. Orfei A. 25. Ferri D. 5. Di Munno A. 80. Bagatti N. 27. Giudici L. 11. Renelus B. 10. Mastroianni F.
1. Boseggia E. (G) 6. Citi A. 5. Bertoncini D. 26. Lorenzini F. 70. Valdesi A. 19. Collodel R. 21. Ranieri R. 99. Basso G. 10. Donadio C. 20. da Graca C. 72. Agyemang G.
Substitutes
13. Aliata T. 14. Citterio G. 93. Dimarco C. 30. Ferrario L. 16. Frattini A. 56. Ganz S. 12. Gnonto R. (G) 24. Marra A. 20. Mora C. . Schiro T. 6. Viti M. 22. Zamarian M. (G)
36. Arboscello R. 79. Cheikh Bethio F. 66. Cortese A. 71. D'Alessio L. 17. Dell'Erba D. 27. Deseri G. 25. Foti 7. Lanini E. 11. Ledonne N. 4. Malaspina M. 16. Raffaelli M. (G) 12. Rossetti M. (G)
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Lorenzini F. 🟨,
15', Bagatti N. 🟨,
43', Masi A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Bagatti N. ↓, Dimarco C. ↑,
47', Masi A. 🟨,
51', Mastroianni F. 🟨,
61', Renelus B. ↓, Citterio G. ↑,
63', Masi A. 🟨,
65', Orfei A. ↓, Mora C. ↑,
74', Basso G. ↓, Lanini E. ↑,
74', Ranieri R. ↓, Malaspina M. ↑,
75', Bertoncini D. 🟨,
81', Valdesi A. ↓, D'Alessio L. ↑,
81', Collodel R. ↓, Arboscello R. ↑,
83', Giudici L. 🟥,
86', Bertoncini D. ↓, Dell'Erba D. ↑,
86', Mastroianni F. ↓, Aliata T. ↑,
87', Ferri D. ↓, Schiro T. ↑,
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pro Patria won 2.
Pro Patria is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
In recent matches, Novara has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins โ 0).
Novara might have a minor edge in this game.
In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Pro Patria won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 14:15. (average 1.1:1.2).
Including home matches between the teams, Pro Patria won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:9. (average 1.4:1.3).
Last Results with these Odds
Novara - the odds 2.88 are the expected chance of winning is 32.07%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.
Italy
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Rovida W. (G) 
Renelus B. 
Dell'Erba D. 
Foti 
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