Match Info

Date: 2 November 2026, Monday ⏱️ In 5d 12h 📅 Remind Me


	Novara		Desenzano Calvina

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.05	3	3.55
	2.02	3.24	3.53	Watch
	1.98	3.2	3.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 (2.02)	3.15 ↓ (3.24)	3.5 ↓ (3.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Novara
45.1%

Draw
28.9%

Desenzano Calvina
26%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

45.5%

28.4%

26.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.2%

28.2%

26.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Novara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Desenzano Calvina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Novara than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Desenzano Calvina than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	0%

Novara - Desenzano Calvina Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

A determined lower-tier side seeks an essential result against mid-table opposition (ranked 16th in the Serie C - Play Out and 11th).

Novara is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Desenzano has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Novara is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Desenzano	11	3	4	4	10:13	-3	13
16	Novara	11	2	4	5	10:16	-6	10

Last Results with these Odds

Desenzano Calvina - the odds 3.52 are the expected chance of winning is 26.12%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Novara Calcio
Italian Serie C Group A
25.10.26	Union ArzignanoChiampo - Novara	2:0 ✺
18.10.26	AlbinoLeffe - Novara	2:2 ✺
10.10.26	Novara - Cittadella	0:2 ✺
04.10.26	Dolomiti Bellunesi - Novara	1:2 ✺
26.09.26	Novara - Ospitaletto	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LTLWL
- Desenzano Calvina
Italian Serie C Group A
25.10.26	Desenzano Calvina - Giana Erminio	1:2 ✺
18.10.26	Alcione - Desenzano Calvina	4:1 ✺
10.10.26	Desenzano Calvina - Dolomiti Bellunesi	2:0 ✺
03.10.26	Folgore Caratese - Desenzano Calvina	1:2 ✺
26.09.26	Desenzano Calvina - Juventus U23	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 LLWWT

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