Match Info

Serie D - Group D - Round 18

Date: 6 January 2026, Tuesday

Location: Stadio Ernesto Breda (Sesto San Giovanni)


	Pro Sesto		Progresso

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.55	5.3
	1.58	3.51	5.67	Watch
	1.65	3.2	5
	1.55	3.42	6.1
	1.55	3.6	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↓ (2.02)	3.46 ↑ (3.45)	5.51 ↑ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pro Sesto
57.4%

Draw
26.2%

Progresso
16.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.3%

26.5%

28.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.5%

25.8%

27.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pro Sesto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Pro Sesto's performance.

Progresso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Progresso might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pro Sesto than the current prediction. (-10.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pro Sesto that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Progresso than the current prediction. (+11.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Progresso could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

Pro Sesto - Progresso Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Pro Sesto (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Pro Sesto will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
53', 0 - 1, Cestaro R. ⚽,
90+5', 0 - 2, Finessi J. ⚽,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group D (Play Offs: ) and 13 in the zone Serie D ~ Group D (Play Out: )).

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

In this match, Pro Sesto is a strong favorite.

We predict that Pro Sesto will win today's game, with odds of 1.71.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Pro Sesto won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Pro Sesto	6	4	1	1	17:5	12	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pro Sesto Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group D
21.12.25	Pro Sesto - Correggese	1:0 ✺
14.12.25	Tuttocuoio - Pro Sesto	0:3 ✺
07.12.25	Pro Sesto - Piacenza	0:2 ✺
30.11.25	Pistoiese - Pro Sesto	0:2 ✺
23.11.25	Pro Sesto - Pro Palazzolo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.9 WWLWW
- SCD Progresso Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group D
21.12.25	Sasso Marconi - Progresso	2:3 ✺
14.12.25	Progresso - SantAngelo	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Progresso - Lentigione	0:1 ✺
30.11.25	Correggese - Progresso	0:2 ✺
23.11.25	Progresso - Tuttocuoio	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group D
07.09.25	Progresso - Pro Sesto	0:1

Pro Sesto - Progresso: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide