Match Info

CHILE: Segunda Division - Round 8

Date: 21 April 2024, Sunday


	Provincial Ovalle		Deportes Concepción

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.25	2.4
	2.45	3.3	2.6
	2.48	3.46	2.46
	2.48	3.46	2.47
	2.88	3.3	2.2
	2.38	3.4	2.72	Watch
	2.45	3.3	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↓ (2.97)	3.35 ↓ (3.45)	2.49 ↑ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Provincial Ovalle
36.2%

Draw
27.2%

Deportes Concepción
36.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.1%

26.8%

42%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.2%

26.1%

43.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Provincial Ovalle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Provincial Ovalle's performance.

Deportes Concepción has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Deportes Concepción might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Provincial Ovalle than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Provincial Ovalle that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportes Concepción than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Deportes Concepción could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Araya K. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
47', 2 - 0, Serrano Panes M. ⚽,
88', 2 - 1, Rigazzi L. ⚽,

Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 9 and 3).

Recent matches Ovalle is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Deportes Concepción in the latest match got series victories and it is in excellent form (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Deportes Concepción could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Deportes Concepción will have a mini benefit in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Provincial Ovalle FC
Chilean Segunda Division
14.04.24	General Velásquez - Provincial Ovalle	2:0 ✺
08.04.24	Provincial Ovalle - San Antonio Unido	0:1 ✺
31.03.24	Provincial Ovalle - Provincial Osorno	4:2 ✺
23.03.24	Trasandino de Los Andes - Provincial Ovalle	2:2 ✺
16.03.24	Arturo Fernández Vial - Provincial Ovalle	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LLWTT
- Deportes Concepción
Chilean Segunda Division
14.04.24	Deportes Concepción - Arturo Fernández Vial	3:2 ✺
06.04.24	Real San Joaquín - Deportes Concepción	0:1 ✺
30.03.24	Deportes Puerto Montt - Deportes Concepción	1:1 ✺
25.03.24	Deportes Concepción - Deportes Linares	2:1 ✺
17.03.24	Deportes Concepción - Concón National	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 WWTWW

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