Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 - Round 32

Date: 27 April 2025, Sunday


	Pueblonuevo		Castuera

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.4	3.5
	1.72	3.6	4.1
	1.72	3.68	4.3
	1.73	3.64	4.07
	1.72	3.6	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (1.99)	3.58 ↑ (3.33)	4.01 ↑ (3.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pueblonuevo
52%

Draw
25.4%

Castuera
22.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.7%

27.3%

27%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.6%

26.2%

25.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pueblonuevo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Pueblonuevo's performance.

Castuera has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pueblonuevo than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castuera than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Pueblonuevo - Castuera Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, Santos F. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
55', 1 - 1, Chavero A. ⚽,
61', 1 - 2, Canero A. ⚽,

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 12 and 15).

Pueblonuevo is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Castuera is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Castuera could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Pueblonuevo will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Pueblonuevo won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Pueblonuevo
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
20.04.25	Trujillo - Pueblonuevo	2:3 ✺
06.04.25	Pueblonuevo - Puebla de la Calzada	1:0 ✺
30.03.25	CD Extremadura - Pueblonuevo	3:1 ✺
23.03.25	Pueblonuevo - Jaraíz	1:1 ✺
16.03.25	Arroyo - Pueblonuevo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 WWLTW
- CD Castuera
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
17.04.25	Castuera - Puebla de la Calzada	1:2 ✺
11.04.25	CD Extremadura - Castuera	2:0 ✺
30.03.25	Arroyo - Castuera	2:2 ✺
21.03.25	Castuera - Llerenense	3:1 ✺
16.03.25	Olivenza - Castuera	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 LLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
04.02.24	Castuera - Pueblonuevo	3:2

Pueblonuevo - Castuera: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide