Match Info
Tercera RFEF - Group 14 - Round 28Date: 30 March 2025, Sunday
|
 |
|
 |
|
|
Arroyo |
|
Castuera |
|
|
1 |
X |
2 |
|
 |
2.25 |
3 |
2.87 |
|
 |
2.25 |
3.05 |
3.05 |
|
 |
2.15 |
3.28 |
3.05 |
|
 |
2.25 |
3.05 |
3.05 |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.23 ↓
(2.53) |
3.1 ↓
(3.23) |
3.01 ↑
(2.5) |
|
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
- The best margin for this event is 9.8%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Arroyo
40.7% | Draw
29.2% | Castuera
30.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Arroyo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)Castuera has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Castuera might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arroyo than the current prediction. (-4.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castuera than the current prediction. (+5.8%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Castuera could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.Arroyo - Castuera Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 44', 1 - 0, Borja M. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 74', 1 - 1, Canero A. ⚽,
- 76', 2 - 1, Giraldo A. ⚽,
- 78', 2 - 2, Bueno A. ⚽,
Preview
We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 16 in the zone Relegation). Arroyo is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0). Recent matches Castuera is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2). Castuera could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days. Recently Arroyo have a series of guest games. The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.
Last 3 head-to-head matches Arroyo won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5:6 (average 1.7:2). Including matches at home between the teams Arroyo won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:4 (average 1.5:2).
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
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