Match Info

Esiliiga B - Round 26

Date: 29 August 2026, Saturday


	Tartu Kalev		Jõhvi Phoenix

	1	X	2
	1.75	4.10	3.30
	1.68	4.15	3.55
	1.65	4.47	3.51
	1.69	4.58	3.52	Watch
	1.89	4.43	3.06
	2.7	4	2.02
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↓ (2.7)	4.29 ↑ (4)	3.16 ↑ (2.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.00

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tartu Kalev
49%

Draw
21.6%

Jõhvi Phoenix
29.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.2%

22.4%

44.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.8%

23.4%

46.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tartu Kalev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tartu Kalev's performance.

Jõhvi Phoenix has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Jõhvi Phoenix might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tartu Kalev than the current prediction. (-17.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tartu Kalev that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jõhvi Phoenix than the current prediction. (+17%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Jõhvi Phoenix could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
16', 0 - 1, Minajev M. ⚽,
20', 0 - 2, ⚽,
43', 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
68', 0 - 3, ⚽,
83', 🟥,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tartu Kalev won 1.

Tartu Kalev is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Jõhvi Phoenix's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Tartu Kalev has had a series of home games.

Recently, Jõhvi Phoenix has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Tartu Kalev won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:13. (average 1.6:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Tartu Kalev won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:1. (average 0.7:0.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Johvi Phoenix	30	17	3	10	71:68	3	54
6	Tartu Kalev	30	15	2	13	72:58	14	47

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tartu Kalev
Estonian Esiliiga B
25.08.26	Tartu Kalev - Tallinna Kalev U21	1:1 ✺
20.08.26	Tartu Kalev - Tammeka U21	2:1 ✺
15.08.26	Tartu Kalev - Pärnu Vaprus U21	1:0 ✺
Estonian Cup
11.08.26	Tallinna Kalev - Tartu Kalev	8:0 ✺
Estonian Esiliiga B
08.08.26	Tartu Kalev - Viljandi Tulevik	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 TWWLW
- Jõhvi FC Phoenix
Estonian Esiliiga B
23.08.26	Tammeka U21 - Jõhvi Phoenix	2:3 ✺
20.08.26	Tabasalu - Jõhvi Phoenix	2:2 ✺
15.08.26	Narva Trans U21 - Jõhvi Phoenix	1:0 ✺
01.08.26	Tallinna JK Legion - Jõhvi Phoenix	0:1 ✺
25.07.26	Viljandi Tulevik - Jõhvi Phoenix	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Esiliiga B
04.07.26	Jõhvi Phoenix - Tartu Kalev	3:2
01.05.26	Jõhvi Phoenix - Tartu Kalev	4:3
27.09.25	Jõhvi Phoenix - Tartu Kalev	3:1
07.09.25	Jõhvi Phoenix - Tartu Kalev	1:3
30.08.25	Tartu Kalev - Jõhvi Phoenix	0:1
03.05.25	Tartu Kalev - Jõhvi Phoenix	2:0
02.11.24	Tartu Kalev - Jõhvi Phoenix	0:0

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