Match Info

Esiliiga B - Round 11

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday


	Pärnu Vaprus U21		Narva Trans U21

	1	X	2
	2.5	4.1	2.1
	2.38	4.55	2.12
	2.28	4.61	2.13
	1.39	6.25	4.88	Watch
	2.45	4.2	1.95
	2.35	4.45	2.16
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↓ (2.92)	4.69 ↑ (4.33)	2.56 ↑ (1.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pärnu Vaprus U21
42.7%

Draw
20.2%

Narva Trans U21
37.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.2%

21%

47.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.5%

21.5%

48.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pärnu Vaprus U21 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Pärnu Vaprus U21's performance.

Narva Trans U21 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Narva Trans U21 might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pärnu Vaprus U21 than the current prediction. (-12.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pärnu Vaprus U21 that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Narva Trans U21 than the current prediction. (+11.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Narva Trans U21 could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Pärnu Vaprus U21 - Narva Trans U21 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (4 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Korre A. ⚽,
9', 2 - 0, Orm R. ⚽,
36', 3 - 0, Pikk E. T. ⚽,
45+1', 4 - 0, Orm R. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 5 and 4).

Pärnu Vaprus U21 is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Narva U21 has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Narva U21 is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Pärnu Vaprus U21 won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:5.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Narva U21	30	20	3	7	71:36	35	63
7	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	30	14	4	12	95:62	33	46

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pärnu JK Vaprus U21
Estonian Esiliiga B
10.05.26	Tartu Kalev - Pärnu Vaprus U21	1:2 ✺
03.05.26	Pärnu Vaprus U21 - Tammeka U21	7:2 ✺
28.04.26	Tallinna Kalev U21 - Pärnu Vaprus U21	2:3 ✺
23.04.26	Viljandi Tulevik - Pärnu Vaprus U21	5:3 ✺
19.04.26	Pärnu Vaprus U21 - Tallinna JK Legion	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 WWWLT
- Narva Trans U21
Estonian Esiliiga B
10.05.26	Narva Trans U21 - Levadia U19	4:4 ✺
06.05.26	Tabasalu - Narva Trans U21	1:0 ✺
02.05.26	Narva Trans U21 - Tallinna JK Legion	5:0 ✺
23.04.26	Narva Trans U21 - Tammeka U21	4:1 ✺
19.04.26	Viljandi Tulevik - Narva Trans U21	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Esiliiga B
22.03.26	Narva Trans U21 - Pärnu Vaprus U21	5:0

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