The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Qarabağ Agdam 47.1%
Draw 26.1%
Neftchi Baku 26.9%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
47.9%
26.6%
25.5%
Our Initial ML Estimation
50.1%
25.4%
24.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Qarabağ Agdam has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)
Neftchi Baku has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Qarabağ Agdam than the current prediction. (+3%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Neftchi Baku than the current prediction. (-2.5%)
Qarabağ Agdam - Neftchi Baku Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Mahammadaliyev S. (C) 8. Jankovic M. 20. Kady Borges 21. Kashchuk O. 5. Langa B. 25. Makreckis C. 2. Matheus Silva 7. Mouaddib J. 35. Pedro Bicalho 9. Sawo Z. 4. Varkonyi B.
93. Cafarov R. (G) 3. Abbasov R. 26. Akinyemi A. 33. Breno Almeida 55. Gravillon A. 20. Gustavo Klismahn 5. Igor Ribeiro 77. Sacko F. (C) 88. Sevelj V. 11. Skribek A. 29. Tupta L.
Substitutes
32. Cabrayilzada H. 29. Cephas R. 39. Gnali J. 12. Hasanov T. (G) 55. Huseynov B. 11. Khadra R. 88. Lobato S. 10. Montiel J. 22. Qurbanly M. 23. Zlomislic M. (G)
14. Badalov E. 6. D'Almeida S. 81. Hasanov M. (G) 22. Jubitana D. 8. Mahmudov E. 18. Mathew I. 7. Safarov E. 97. Sambou B. 27. Savic D. 24. Seck M. 70. Shtogrin A. 10. Vargas F.
Coaches
Qurbanov Q.
Vernydub Y.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 2)
11', 0 - 1, Gustavo Klismahn ⚽,
18', 1 - 1, Kashchuk O. ⚽,
34', 1 - 2, Gustavo Klismahn ⚽,
41', Tupta L. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Akinyemi A. ↓, Sambou B. ↑,
46', Tupta L. ↓, Savic D. ↑,
52', 1 - 3, Savic D. ⚽,
64', Mouaddib J. ↓, Cephas R. ↑,
64', Pedro Bicalho ↓, Montiel J. ↑,
68', Skribek A. ↓, Safarov E. ↑,
74', Abbasov R. ↓, Seck M. ↑,
76', Sawo Z. ↓, Qurbanly M. ↑,
76', Makreckis C. ↓, Lobato S. ↑,
77', Gustavo Klismahn 🟨,
82', Gustavo Klismahn ↓, Mathew I. ↑,
89', 2 - 3, Cephas R. ⚽,
90+4', Safarov E. 🟨,
90+5', 3 - 3, Kady Borges ⚽,
90+6', Igor Ribeiro 🟨,
Preview
One of the standout fixtures of the round, featuring two top-tier sides (ranked 3rd in the Promotion - Conference League (Qualification: ) and 1st in the Promotion - Champions League (Qualification: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Qarabağ won 4.
Qarabağ arrives with excellent momentum after picking up several victories (last 5 matches: 4 wins).
Neftchi is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Neftchi could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
In this matchup, Qarabağ is considered the favorite to take the win.
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Qarabağ has recorded 18 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 62:11 (averaging 3.1:0.6 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Qarabağ against this opponent, the record stands at 9 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 32:4 goals (averaging 3.2:0.4 per game).
Azerbaijan
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Mahammadaliyev S. (C) 
Jankovic M. 
Kady Borges 
Kashchuk O. 
Langa B. 
Makreckis C. 
Mouaddib J. 
Sawo Z. 
Varkonyi B. 
Akinyemi A. 
Gravillon A. 
Sacko F. (C) 
Sevelj V. 
Tupta L. 
Cephas R. 
Khadra R. 
Lobato S. 
Montiel J. 
Zlomislic M. (G) 
D'Almeida S. 
Jubitana D. 
Sambou B. 
Savic D. 
Vargas F. 
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