Match Info

Premier League - Round 3

Date: 30 August 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Zira Stadium (Zira) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Masiyev E. (Aze)


	Zira		Neftchi Baku

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.00	2.55
	2.8	2.95	2.32	Watch
	2.65	3.05	2.75
	2.81	3.08	2.46	Watch
	3	3.05	2.3
	3.12	3.12	2.34
	2.85	3.05	2.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.81 ↓ (2.9)	3.04 ↓ (3.25)	2.44 ↑ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Zira
32.5%

Draw
30%

Neftchi Baku
37.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

31.7%

28.3%

40%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.3%

28.7%

40.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zira has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Neftchi Baku has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zira than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Neftchi Baku than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Zira - Neftchi Baku Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Bayramov A. (G) 32. Aliyev Q. 7. Aydin E. 21. Guima 11. Guseynov A. 8. Ibrahimli I. 5. Mutsinzi A. 4. Ruan Renato 2. Seydiyev A. 17. Vieirinha 9. Volkovi D.	1. Balayev E. (G) 3. Abbasov R. 14. Badalov E. 33. Breno Almeida 20. Gustavo Klismahn 5. Igor Ribeiro 18. Mathew I. 77. Sacko F. 7. Safarov E. 29. Tupta L. 10. Vargas F.
Substitutes
14. Alicanov E. 27. Bayere Junior L. 29. Chrismael D. 20. Djibrilla I. 57. Haciyev Y. 6. Hacyly H. 48. Muradov R. 41. Nazirov A. (G) 10. Papunashvili G. 72. Quliyev H. (G)	93. Cafarov R. (G) 4. Camalov E. 55. Gravillon A. 81. Hasanov M. (G) 17. Khachayev M. 8. Mahmudov E. 82. Mammadli M. 97. Sambou B. 27. Savic D. 24. Seck M. 80. Shirinov A. 11. Skribek A.
Coaches
Sadiqov R.	Vernydub Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', Mathew I. 🟨,
5', 🟨,
27', Guima 🟨,
35', Badalov E. 🟨,
45+3', 1 - 0, Aliyev Q. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
70', Badalov E. 🟥,
75', Guseynov A. ↓, Papunashvili G. ↑,
75', Volkovi D. ↓, Djibrilla I. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Zira won 2.

Zira is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Neftchi has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Zira may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Zira won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 22:23. (average 1.1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Zira won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:11. (average 1.3:1.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Neftci Baku	9	5	3	1	22:9	13	18
5	Zira	9	4	3	2	12:12	0	15

Last Results with these Odds

Neftchi Baku - the odds 2.3 are the expected chance of winning is 39.99%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Zira FK
Azerbaijan Premier League
22.08.26	Zira - İmişli	3:1 ✺
16.08.26	Zira - Şəfa	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
30.07.26	Zira - Paide LM	1:1 ✺
23.07.26	Paide LM - Zira	1:0 ✺
16.07.26	Torpedo Kutaisi - Zira	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWTLW
- Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan Premier League
23.08.26	Neftchi Baku - Araz Naxçıvan	5:0 ✺
16.08.26	Sumgayit - Neftchi Baku	1:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
30.07.26	Dinamo Minsk - Neftchi Baku	0:1 ✺
22.07.26	Neftchi Baku - Dinamo Minsk	2:4 ✺
Club Friendly
13.07.26	Neftchi Baku - Osijek	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Premier League
17.04.26	Zira - Neftchi Baku	1:1
23.01.26	Neftchi Baku - Zira	0:0
Azerbaijan Cup
02.12.25	Zira - Neftchi Baku	1:0 ET
Azerbaijan Premier League
03.10.25	Zira - Neftchi Baku	2:2
13.04.25	Neftchi Baku - Zira	2:4
10.02.25	Zira - Neftchi Baku	1:2
23.11.24	Neftchi Baku - Zira	2:1

Zira - Neftchi Baku