Match Info

EUROPE: CHAMPIONS LEAGUE - QUALIFICATION - QUARTER-FINALS

Date: 2 August 2023, Wednesday

Location: Azersun Arena (Baku)

Referee: Jablonski S. (Ger)


	Qarabağ Agdam		Raków Częstochowa

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.5	3.75
	2	3.5	3.6
	2.02	3.4	3.75
	2	3.5	3.6
	2	3.63	3.86
	2	3	3.4
	2.01	3.4	3.76
	2.03	3.5	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↓ (2.22)	3.43 ↑ (3.13)	3.7 ↑ (3.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Qarabağ Agdam
47.1%

Draw
27.5%

Raków Częstochowa
25.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42%

29.8%

28.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42%

29.8%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Qarabağ Agdam has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Qarabağ Agdam's performance.

Raków Częstochowa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Qarabağ Agdam than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Qarabağ Agdam that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Raków Częstochowa than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	5.6%	11.1%

Qarabağ Agdam - Raków Częstochowa Predictions

Users Predictions: 36 users predict this event. Qarabağ will win (votes: 30 - 83.3%). Raków will win (votes: 4 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 5.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Qarabağ: 71.1% – 95.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mahammadaliyev S. (C) 27. Bayramov T. 13. Mustafazada B. 81. Medina K. 44. Cafarquliyev E. 6. Romao J. 8. Jankovic M. 15. Leandro Andrade 7. Benzia Y. 10. Zoubir A. 19. Xhixha R.	1. Kovacevic V. (G) 25. Racovitan B. 24. Arsenic Z. (C) 4. Svarnas S. 7. Tudor F. 66. Papanikolaou G. 5. Berggren G. 20. Silva J. 77. Cebula M. 9. Zwolinski L. 11. Yeboah J.
Substitutes
90. Akhundzade N. 66. Andrade P. 11. Diakhaby A. 23. Gugeshashvili L. (G) 55. Huseynov B. 18. Juninho 17. Keyta H. 4. Mammadov R. 5. Medvedev M. 83. Quliyev N. 89. Ramazanov A. (G) 20. Richard Almeyda	89. Bieszczad K. (G) 6. Czyz S. 93. Kittel S. 30. Kochergin V. 8. Lederman B. 27. Nowak B. 99. Piasecki F. 14. Plavsic S. 22. Sorescu D. 17. Wdowiak M.
Coaches
Gurbanov G.	Szwarga D.

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 2-3.

Recent matches Qarabağ is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Raków is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recently Qarabağ have a series of guest games.

Recently Raków have a series of home games.

Qarabağ will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Qarabağ won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Qarabağ Agdam
UEFA Champions League
26.07.23	Raków Częstochowa - Qarabağ Agdam	3:2 ✺
19.07.23	Qarabağ Agdam - Lincoln Red Imps	4:0 ✺
11.07.23	Lincoln Red Imps - Qarabağ Agdam	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
04.07.23	CSKA Sofia - Qarabağ Agdam	0:1 ✺
01.07.23	Legia Warsaw - Qarabağ Agdam	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LWWWL
- Raków Częstochowa
UEFA Champions League
26.07.23	Raków Częstochowa - Qarabağ Agdam	3:2 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
22.07.23	Raków Częstochowa - Jagiellonia Białystok	3:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.07.23	Flora Tallinn - Raków Częstochowa	0:3 ✺
Polish Super Cup
15.07.23	Raków Częstochowa - Legia Warsaw	0:1 penalties ✺
UEFA Champions League
11.07.23	Raków Częstochowa - Flora Tallinn	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
26.07.23	Raków Częstochowa - Qarabağ Agdam	3:2
Club Friendly
13.01.23	Raków Częstochowa - Qarabağ Agdam	3:0

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