Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 9

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków (Częstochowa)

Referee: Przybyl J. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz


	Raków Częstochowa		Legia Warsaw

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.25	3	Watch
	2.25	3.35	2.98
	2.41	3.47	2.98
	2.50	2.68	3.46	Watch
	2.33	3.42	2.95	Watch
	2.19	3.45	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↑ (2.24)	3.27 ↓ (3.54)	3.05 ↑ (3.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Raków Częstochowa
40.3%

Draw
28.8%

Legia Warsaw
30.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.1%

26.6%

31.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.4%

26.4%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Raków Częstochowa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Legia Warsaw has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Raków Częstochowa than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	37.5%	37.5%

Raków Częstochowa - Legia Warsaw Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Raków will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Legia will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Legia: 4% – 71%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Trelowski K. (G) 25. Racovitan B. 24. Arsenic Z. (C) 4. Svarnas S. 7. Tudor F. 88. Barath P. 5. Bulat M. 20. Silva J. 18. Brunes J. 99. Rondic I. 10. Lopez I.	1. Tobiasz K. (G) 7. Wszolek P. 91. Piatkowski K. 3. Kapuadi S. 19. Vinagre R. 44. Szymanski D. 30. Stojanovic P. 67. Kapustka B. (C) 22. Elitim J. 77. Krasniqi E. 29. Rajovic M.
Substitutes
11. Adriano 19. Ameyaw M. 80. Diaby-Fadiga L. 66. Konstantopoulos A. 9. Makuch P. 8. Pienko T. 6. Repka O. 23. Struski K. 48. Zych O. (G)	8. Augustyniak R. 21. Bichakhchyan V. 4. Burch M. 17. Colak A. 55. Jedrzejczyk A. 27. Kobylak G. (G) 12. Pankov R. 13. Reca A. 82. Urbanski K. 53. Urbanski W. 99. Weisshaupt N. 20. Zewlakow J.
Coaches
Papszun M.	Iordanescu E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
41', 0 - 1, Stojanovic P. ⚽,
42', Szymanski D. 🟨,
45+7', 1 - 1, Lopez I. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', Silva J. ↓, Adriano ↑,
62', Lopez I. ↓, Ameyaw M. ↑,
62', Rondic I. ↓, Makuch P. ↑,
64', Stojanovic P. 🟨,
66', Krasniqi E. ↓, Weisshaupt N. ↑,
68', Kapuadi S. 🟨,
69', Svarnas S. 🟨,
75', Stojanovic P. ↓, Bichakhchyan V. ↑,
77', Brunes J. ↓, Diaby-Fadiga L. ↑,
77', Bulat M. ↓, Repka O. ↑,
87', Rajovic M. ↓, Colak A. ↑,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1 and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Raków won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Raków: Kochergin V. (Knee Injury) Otieno E. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Legia: Goncalves C. (Ankle Injury) Nsame J. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Raków won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 26:26. (average 1.4:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Raków won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:10. (average 1.7:1.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Raków Częstochowa - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 42.11%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Raków Częstochowa
Polish Ekstraklasa
15.09.25	Raków Częstochowa - Górnik Zabrze	0:1 ✺
31.08.25	Pogoń Szczecin - Raków Częstochowa	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
28.08.25	Arda Kardzhali - Raków Częstochowa	1:2 ✺
21.08.25	Raków Częstochowa - Arda Kardzhali	1:0 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
17.08.25	Termalica Nieciecza - Raków Częstochowa	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LLWWW
- Legia Warsaw
Polish Ekstraklasa
14.09.25	Legia Warsaw - Radomiak Radom	4:1 ✺
31.08.25	Cracovia - Legia Warsaw	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
28.08.25	Legia Warsaw - Hibernian	3:3 ET ✺
21.08.25	Hibernian - Legia Warsaw	1:2 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
17.08.25	Wisła Płock - Legia Warsaw	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
16.03.25	Raków Częstochowa - Legia Warsaw	3:2
15.09.24	Legia Warsaw - Raków Częstochowa	0:1
13.04.24	Raków Częstochowa - Legia Warsaw	1:1
08.10.23	Legia Warsaw - Raków Częstochowa	1:2
Polish Super Cup
15.07.23	Raków Częstochowa - Legia Warsaw	0:1 penalties
Polish Cup
02.05.23	Legia Warsaw - Raków Częstochowa	1:0 penalties
Polish Ekstraklasa
01.04.23	Legia Warsaw - Raków Częstochowa	3:1

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