Match Info

Premier League - Round 30

Date: 4 May 2026, Monday

Location: Azersun Arena (Baku)

Referee: Ahmadov R. (Aze)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport


	Qarabağ Agdam		Turan Tovuz

	1	X	2
	1.47	3.9	5.9	Watch
	1.52	4.1	6.3
	1.48	4.01	6.18	Watch
	1.5	3.6	6
	1.44	3.98	6.41	Watch
	1.42	3.75	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↑ (1.46)	3.89 ↓ (4.08)	6 ↑ (5.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Qarabağ Agdam
61.6%

Draw
23.3%

Turan Tovuz
15.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.2%

22.3%

15.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.8%

22.9%

15.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Qarabağ Agdam has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Turan Tovuz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Qarabağ Agdam than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Turan Tovuz than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Qarabağ Agdam - Turan Tovuz Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Qarabağ (1.69) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Qarabağ Agdam will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Qarabağ (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Kochalski M. (G) 11. Addai E. 27. Bayramov T. 55. Huseynov B. (C) 8. Jankovic M. 21. Kashchuk O. 15. Leandro Andrade 2. Matheus Silva 81. Medina K. 35. Pedro Bicalho 22. Qurbanly M.	41. Samok S. (G) 15. Hackman E. (C) 3. Henrique 32. Hurtado H. 90. Jo Batista 2. Mampassi M. 19. Olabe R. 17. Sadykhov R. 23. Serrano A. 7. Silva J. 99. Wadji I.
Substitutes
97. Buntic F. (G) 32. Cabrayilzada H. 18. Dani Bolt 24. Gnali J. 89. Ramazanov A. (G) 77. Sheydayev R. 10. Zoubir A.	1. Baklov O. (G) 11. Guseynov A. 13. Haciyev M. (G) 88. Hadzhiyev F. 5. Miller R. 10. Nacafov K. 8. Tavares D. 6. Yusifli F.
Coaches
Qurbanov Q.	Berdyev K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Qurbanly M. ↓, Zoubir A. ↑,
18', Sadykhov R. 🟨,
37', Jo Batista 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
50', 1 - 0, Leandro Andrade ⚽,
52', Olabe R. 🟨,
52', Pedro Bicalho 🟨,
54', 2 - 0, Matheus Silva ⚽,
65', Wadji I. ↓, Nacafov K. ↑,
65', Olabe R. ↓, Guseynov A. ↑,
69', Medina K. 🟨,
77', 2 - 1, Guseynov A. ⚽,
77', Mampassi M. ↓, Miller R. ↑,
77', Addai E. ↓, Sheydayev R. ↑,
90', Leandro Andrade ↓, Dani Bolt ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Qarabağ won 3.

Qarabağ is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Turan is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Qarabağ may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Qarabağ has had a series of away games.

In this match, Qarabağ is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Qarabağ won 11 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 33:15. (average 2.1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Qarabağ won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:8. (average 2:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Qarabag	5	4	1	0	9:4	5	13
4	Turan Tovuz	6	3	2	1	6:4	2	11

Last Results with these Odds

Qarabağ Agdam - the odds 1.46 are the expected chance of winning is 62.16%, but this team recently wins 70% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Qarabağ Agdam
Azerbaijan Premier League
30.04.26	Neftchi Baku - Qarabağ Agdam	2:1 ✺
26.04.26	Neftchi Baku - Qarabağ Agdam	1:5 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
22.04.26	Sabah - Qarabağ Agdam	2:1 ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
18.04.26	Qarabağ Agdam - Sabah	0:1 ✺
11.04.26	Shamakhi - Qarabağ Agdam	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LWLLT
- Turan Tovuz
Azerbaijan Premier League
27.04.26	Turan Tovuz - Zira	1:1 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
21.04.26	Zira - Turan Tovuz	0:0 ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
17.04.26	Araz Naxçıvan - Turan Tovuz	0:3 ✺
12.04.26	Turan Tovuz - Sumgayit	2:1 ✺
07.04.26	İmişli - Turan Tovuz	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 TTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Premier League
01.02.26	Qarabağ Agdam - Turan Tovuz	1:0
17.10.25	Turan Tovuz - Qarabağ Agdam	1:2
28.03.25	Turan Tovuz - Qarabağ Agdam	1:4
26.01.25	Qarabağ Agdam - Turan Tovuz	1:2
01.11.24	Turan Tovuz - Qarabağ Agdam	0:0
24.08.24	Qarabağ Agdam - Turan Tovuz	0:1
17.05.24	Qarabağ Agdam - Turan Tovuz	4:3

Qarabağ Agdam - Turan Tovuz: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide