Match Info

Championship - Round 5

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: The City Stadium (Glasgow)

Referee: Irvine G. (Sco)


	Queens Park		Greenock Morton

	1	X	2
	2.20	3.20	2.80
	2.25	3.20	2.70
	2.15	3.30	2.95	Watch
	2.42	3.25	3.08
	2.37	3.23	3.01	Watch
	2.35	3.15	3.00
	2.28	3.13	2.94	Watch
	2.35	3.20	2.90
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↑ (2.25)	3.21 ↓ (3.36)	2.92 ↓ (3.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Queens Park
40%

Draw
28.6%

Greenock Morton
31.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.5%

27.8%

30.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.9%

25.4%

33.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Queens Park has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Greenock Morton has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Queens Park than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Greenock Morton than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Queens Park - Greenock Morton Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Wills J. (G) 12. Pignatiello C. 4. Murray E. (C) 5. Lamie R. 21. McLean R. 11. Connolly A. 7. Longridge L. 8. Martin S. 14. Stewart L. 77. Todorov N. 9. Ruth M.	1. Harrison E. (G) 2. Ballantyne C. 4. Cupps C. 5. Croker P. 52. Fairnie L. 21. Gillespie G. (C) 47. Cochrane H. 29. O'Halloran M. 20. Sandilands C. 7. Garrity M. 10. Brophy E.
Substitutes
26. Brannan B. 16. Fisher O. 10. Hamilton J. 25. Lawson Z. 2. Mauchin Z. 24. McCallion A. 17. McDonnell T. 1. Mitchell D. (G) 27. Smith C.	17. Bashir S. 27. Borso D. 25. Carse M. 9. Gorman J. 31. Kinnear B. (G) 11. Mcluckie B. 6. Okike C. 19. Robertson K. 8. Savoury G.
Coaches
Crighton S.	Murray I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
22', 1 - 0, Ruth M. ⚽, Todorov N. (A),
29', 1 - 1, Fairnie L. ⚽, Sandilands C. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
47', 2 - 1, Ruth M. ⚽,
54', Martin S. 🟨,
60', Sandilands C. ↓, Savoury G. ↑,
62', Todorov N. ↓, Hamilton J. ↑,
62', Stewart L. ↓, McDonnell T. ↑,
69', Fairnie L. ↓, Okike C. ↑,
69', Garrity M. ↓, Borso D. ↑,
70', McLean R. 🟨,
76', Martin S. ↓, McCallion A. ↑,
76', McLean R. ↓, Mauchin Z. ↑,
78', Mauchin Z. 🟨,
79', Croker P. ↓, Gorman J. ↑,
81', Ruth M. ↓, Smith C. ↑,
83', Longridge L. 🟨,
90+2', Okike C. 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 10 in the zone Relegation ~ League One and 9 in the zone Championship (Relegation)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Queens Park won 1.

Queens Park has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Greenock is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Queens Park won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 18:24. (average 0.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Queens Park won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:8. (average 1.1:0.9).

Outrights of Scottish Football Championship for now

Queen's Park: 0.53% Morton: 0.42%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Queen's Park	8	1	1	6	4:13	-9	4
10	Morton	9	0	1	8	5:17	-12	1

Last Results with these Odds

Queens Park - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 41.46%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Greenock Morton - the odds 3.03 are the expected chance of winning is 30.78%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Queens Park FC
Scottish Football Championship
29.08.26	Partick Thistle - Queens Park	0:0 ✺
22.08.26	Queens Park - Stenhousemuir	0:2 ✺
08.08.26	Queens Park - Raith Rovers	1:2 ✺
01.08.26	Livingston - Queens Park	2:0 ✺
Scottish League Cup
25.07.26	Queens Park - Queen of the South	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 TLLLW
- Greenock Morton
Scottish Football Championship
29.08.26	Ayr United - Greenock Morton	1:1 ✺
22.08.26	Greenock Morton - Arbroath	1:2 ✺
08.08.26	Stenhousemuir - Greenock Morton	2:0 ✺
01.08.26	Greenock Morton - Partick Thistle	0:1 ✺
Scottish League Cup
25.07.26	Greenock Morton - Inverness	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Football Championship
18.04.26	Greenock Morton - Queens Park	0:0
21.02.26	Queens Park - Greenock Morton	3:2
05.12.25	Greenock Morton - Queens Park	2:1
13.09.25	Queens Park - Greenock Morton	0:0
22.03.25	Greenock Morton - Queens Park	2:1
25.01.25	Queens Park - Greenock Morton	1:2
29.10.24	Greenock Morton - Queens Park	0:1

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