Match Info

Bundesliga Women - Round 6

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Red Bull Arena (Leipzig)

Referee: Menzel S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Magenta Sport


	RB Leipzig		Mainz

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.42	4.50	5.25
	1.37	4.5	5.9	Watch
	1.4	4.9	6.57
	1.42	4.81	6.3	Watch
	1.37	4.85	6.4
	1.4	4.84	6.72
	1.39	4.7	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↓ (1.45)	4.73 ↑ (4.51)	6.16 ↑ (6.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

RB Leipzig
65.7%

Draw
19.4%

Mainz
14.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.1%

20.6%

15.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.2%

16.1%

19.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

RB Leipzig has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (-15.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with RB Leipzig that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

RB Leipzig - Mainz Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. RB Leipzig (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Herzog E. (G) 12. Mathys J. 24. Dudek N. 4. Mertens Z. (C) 22. Tuin A. 16. Schasching A. 8. Asgeirsdottir E. 18. Pusztai S. 6. Joly L. 27. Simonsson T. 17. Boboy D.	33. Schon M. (G) 4. Bathmann K. 3. Georgieva M. 9. Berg J. (C) 37. Pageler M. L. 14. Imai Y. 8. Takizawa R. 7. Fetaj G. 6. Kurishima A. 31. Stohr L. 30. Kats V.
Substitutes
77. Hulst C. 19. Kleemann M. 23. Lindner S. (G) 3. Norheim A. 20. Pfister E. 14. Schimmer M. 25. Veefkind L.	27. Anstatt N. 24. Bukowski M. 25. Hashitani S. 26. Martin L. 12. Pawlowski L. (G) 13. Strickler M.
Coaches
Stephan J.	Yamashita T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
5', Joly L. 🟨,
29', Joly L. ↓, Hulst C. ↑,
29', Simonsson T. 🟨,
30', Stephan J. 🟨,
2nd Half (5 - 0)
47', 1 - 0, Boboy D. ⚽,
52', 2 - 0, Tuin A. ⚽, Asgeirsdottir E. (A),
54', Georgieva M. 🟨,
54', 3 - 0, Schasching A. ⚽,
62', Kurishima A. ↓, Martin L. ↑,
62', Fetaj G. ↓, Strickler M. ↑,
71', Stohr L. ↓, Anstatt N. ↑,
74', Simonsson T. ↓, Schimmer M. ↑,
74', Mertens Z. ↓, Norheim A. ↑,
77', Schimmer M. 🟨,
79', Takizawa R. ↓, Hashitani S. ↑,
79', Georgieva M. ↓, Bukowski M. ↑,
83', 4 - 0, Schasching A. (Penalty Awarded),
84', Boboy D. ↓, Pfister E. ↑,
84', Asgeirsdottir E. ↓, Kleemann M. ↑,
88', Bathmann K. 🟨,
90', 5 - 0, Pusztai S. ⚽, Hulst C. (A),
90+2', Anstatt N. 🟨,

Preview

Important points are at stake as a mid-tier club meets a struggling opponent (ranked 10th and 14th in the Relegation - 2. Bundesliga Women).

RB Leipzig is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Mainz is on a prolonged losing streak (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Mainz could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this matchup, RB Leipzig is considered the favorite to take the win.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	RB Leipzig W	6	2	1	3	10:9	1	7
14	Mainz W	6	0	0	6	3:19	-16	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RB Leipzig Women
German Bundesliga Women
20.09.26	Union Berlin - RB Leipzig	3:2 ✺
12.09.26	RB Leipzig - Nürnberg	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	Hamburger SV - RB Leipzig	1:1 ✺
30.08.26	Werder Bremen - RB Leipzig	2:0 ✺
23.08.26	RB Leipzig - Bayer 04 Leverkusen	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LWTLL
- Mainz 05 Women
German Bundesliga Women
18.09.26	Mainz - Eintracht Frankfurt	2:3 ✺
13.09.26	Freiburg - Mainz	3:0 ✺
05.09.26	Mainz - Köln	0:4 ✺
31.08.26	Bayern Munich - Mainz	2:0 ✺
24.08.26	Mainz - Werder Bremen	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

RB Leipzig - Mainz: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide