Match Info

Date: 6 October 2022, Thursday

Location: NSB Arkādija (Riga)

Referee: Petrescu R. M. (Rou)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Finland	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay


	RFS		İstanbul Başakşehir

	1	X	2
	8	4.33	1.44
	7.5	4.33	1.43
	8.7	4.5	1.4
	7.6	4.3	1.42
	8.56	4.3	1.45
	8.1	4.5	1.38
	8	4.5	1.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.07 ↑ (5.35)	4.39 ↑ (3.86)	1.42 ↓ (1.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

RFS
11.8%

Draw
21.6%

İstanbul Başakşehir
66.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.5%

24.2%

58.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.2%

23.8%

59.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

RFS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that RFS's form might have worsened.

İstanbul Başakşehir has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting İstanbul Başakşehir's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for RFS than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for RFS, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for İstanbul Başakşehir than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for İstanbul Başakşehir, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.7%	2.7%	85.6%

RFS - İstanbul Başakşehir Predictions

Users Predictions: İstanbul Başakşehir will win (95 of 111 users predict this - 85.59%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.06% – 92.12%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

RFS has currently - 1, has a very small chance of 1st (1%), has a very small chance of 2nd (5%), has a chance of 3rd (20%), has a very small chance of round of 16 (2%), has a very small chance of qtrs (<1%), has a very small chance of semis (<1%), has a very small chance of final (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Başakşehir has currently - 6, has a good chance of 1st (83%), has a small chance of 2nd (14%), has a very small chance of 3rd (2%), has a good chance of round of 16 (90%), has a chance of qtrs (44%), has a chance of semis (18%), has a small chance of final (6%), has a very small chance of win league (2%).

This event has quality 42, small importance 23, match rating 33. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

RFS is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Başakşehir in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Başakşehir could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Başakşehir is indisputable favorite.

There will not play in Başakşehir: Ozil M. (Back Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK RFS
Latvian Virsliga
01.10.22	RFS - Metta	6:0 ✺
27.09.22	BFC Daugavpils - RFS	1:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
15.09.22	RFS - Hearts	0:2 ✺
Latvian Virsliga
12.09.22	RFS - Spartaks	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
08.09.22	Fiorentina - RFS	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.3 WWLWT
- İstanbul Başakşehir
Turkish Super League
01.10.22	Ankaragücü - İstanbul Başakşehir	1:2 ✺
18.09.22	İstanbul Başakşehir - Fatih Karagümrükspor	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
15.09.22	İstanbul Başakşehir - Fiorentina	3:0 ✺
Turkish Super League
12.09.22	Beşiktaş - İstanbul Başakşehir	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
08.09.22	Hearts - İstanbul Başakşehir	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 WTWWW

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