Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 23 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Juan Domingo Perón (Avellaneda)

Referee: Ostojich E. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
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Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+, ESPN Premium
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
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Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	Como TV
Malaysia	Mola
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Caribbean
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-america	ESPN South
Spain	LaLiga+
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Racing		Vélez Sársfield

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.1	3.4	Watch
	2.32	3.05	3.2	Watch
	2.27	3.13	3.56
				Watch
	2.23	3.19	3.72	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↓ (2.34)	3.12 ↓ (3.16)	3.47 ↑ (3.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Racing
42%

Draw
30.6%

Vélez Sársfield
27.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.8%

30.3%

28.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.3%

31.4%

27.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Racing has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Vélez Sársfield has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Racing than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vélez Sársfield than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.8%	41.2%	0%

Racing - Vélez Sársfield Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Racing will win (votes: 10 - 58.8%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 41.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Racing: 35.4% – 82.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Racing (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Racing (1.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Racing (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Cambeses F. (G) 34. Mura F. 18. Pardo F. 23. Colombo N. 27. Rojas G. 5. Nardoni J. 13. Sosa S. (C) 32. Almendra A. E. 17. Conechny T. 9. Adrian Martinez 28. Solari S.	1. Marchiori T. (G) 14. Lagos A. 2. Mammana E. 6. Quiros A. 3. Gomez E. 23. Aliendro R. 26. Bouzat A. (C) 28. Carrizo M. 8. Galvan T. 39. Machuca I. 7. Santos M.
Substitutes
21. Arias G. (G) 77. Balboa A. 16. Barrios M. 3. Di Cesare M. 2. Garcia A. 15. Martirena Torres G. N. 19. Rodriguez I. 22. Torres E. 7. Vergara D. 10. Vietto L. 11. Zaracho M. 36. Zuculini B.	50. Andrada T. 35. Arias M. 5. Baeza C. 9. Braian Romero 15. Godoy D. 22. Lanzini M. 12. Montero A. (G) 29. Monzon F. 11. Pellegrini M. 20. Pizzini F. 40. Silvero T. 10. Valdes D.
Coaches
Costas G.	Barros Schelotto G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
5', Gomez E. 🟨,
25', Nardoni J. ↓, Zuculini B. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Galvan T. ↓, Lanzini M. ↑,
46', Aliendro R. ↓, Andrada T. ↑,
66', Almendra A. E. ↓, Zaracho M. ↑,
66', Conechny T. ↓, Rodriguez I. ↑,
68', Santos M. ↓, Braian Romero ↑,
70', Pardo F. 🟨,
82', Rojas G. 🟨,
82', 1 - 0, Solari S. ⚽, Rojas G. (A),
84', Bouzat A. 🟨,
85', Rojas G. ↓, Balboa A. ↑,
86', Solari S. ↓, Martirena Torres G. N. ↑,
88', Machuca I. ↓, Valdes D. ↑,
88', Lagos A. ↓, Godoy D. ↑,

Preview

1st leg result: 1-0. 2nd leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Racing won 3.

Racing has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Vélez is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Racing could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Racing: Rojo M. (Inactive) Solari S. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Vélez: Braian Romero (Muscle Injury) Fernandez T. (Knee Injury) Garcia J. (Broken ankle) Magallan L. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Vélez: Cavanagh T. (Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Racing won 11 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 22:10. (average 1.2:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Racing won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 13:4. (average 1.4:0.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Racing - the odds 2.34 are the expected chance of winning is 40.82%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Vélez Sársfield - the odds 3.31 are the expected chance of winning is 28.9%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Racing Club de Avellaneda
Argentinian Liga Profesional
19.09.25	Huracán Buenos Aires - Racing	0:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
16.09.25	Vélez Sársfield - Racing	0:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
12.09.25	Racing - San Lorenzo	2:0 ✺
31.08.25	Racing - Unión Santa Fe	2:3 ✺
24.08.25	Argentinos Juniors - Racing	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 WWWLL
- Vélez Sársfield
Argentinian Liga Profesional
19.09.25	San Martín de San Juan - Vélez Sársfield	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
16.09.25	Vélez Sársfield - Racing	0:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
12.09.25	Huracán Buenos Aires - Vélez Sársfield	0:0 ✺
Argentinian Super Cup
06.09.25	Vélez Sársfield - Central Córdoba	2:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
30.08.25	Vélez Sársfield - Lanús	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
16.09.25	Vélez Sársfield - Racing	0:1
Argentinian Liga Profesional
05.10.24	Vélez Sársfield - Racing	1:0
17.06.23	Racing - Vélez Sársfield	2:1
16.06.22	Racing - Vélez Sársfield	2:0
17.07.21	Vélez Sársfield - Racing	0:0
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
16.05.21	Vélez Sársfield - Racing	0:1 penalties
11.12.20	Vélez Sársfield - Racing	2:1

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