The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
San Martín de San Juan 35.4%
Draw 34.4%
Vélez Sársfield 30.1%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
26.6%
31%
42.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
26.1%
30.4%
43.1%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
San Martín de San Juan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in San Martín de San Juan's performance.
Vélez Sársfield has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.2%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Vélez Sársfield might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Martín de San Juan than the current prediction. (-9.3%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with San Martín de San Juan that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vélez Sársfield than the current prediction. (+13%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Vélez Sársfield could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
26.3%
36.8%
36.8%
San Martín de San Juan - Vélez Sársfield Predictions
Users Predictions:
19 users predict this event. San Martín will win (votes: 5 - 26.3%). Vélez will win (votes: 7 - 36.8%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 36.8%). Confidence interval (95%) for Vélez: 15.1% – 58.5%.
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. San Martín (votes: 1 - 20%). Vélez (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. San Martín (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Vélez (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Borgogno M. (C) 16. Portillo A. 2. Caseres R. 6. Recalde L. 30. Diarte L. 18. Salle S. 49. Gonzalez D. 22. Jaurena S. 28. Iacobellis M. 10. Gonzalez S. 11. Maestro I.
12. Montero A. (G) 43. Andrada I. 16. Magallan L. (C) 6. Quiros A. 37. Cavanagh T. 50. Andrada T. 5. Baeza C. 22. Lanzini M. 11. Pellegrini M. 15. Godoy D. 39. Machuca I.
Substitutes
32. Anselmo F. 15. Cavallaro J. 19. Escalante L. T. 27. Fernandez T. 9. Gonzalez F. 29. Lecanda T. 37. Menendez J. 4. Molina A. 39. Orihuela M. 14. Pablo Garcia 25. Toloza F. 13. Velazco M. (G)
23. Aliendro R. 35. Arias M. 49. Dominguez D. 8. Galvan T. 1. Marchiori T. (G) 29. Monzon F. 20. Pizzini F. 19. Roldan L. 40. Silvero T. 10. Valdes D. 33. Vazquez K. A. 17. Veron A.
Coaches
Romagnoli L.
Barros Schelotto G.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
8', Cavanagh T. 🟨,
10', 0 - 1, Lanzini M. ⚽, Andrada I. (A),
44', Diarte L. 🟨,
45', Cavanagh T. ↓, Silvero T. ↑,
45+1', Gonzalez D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', 0 - 2, Godoy D. ⚽,
53', Gonzalez D. ↓, Toloza F. ↑,
54', Portillo A. 🟨,
59', 1 - 2, Maestro I. ⚽,
61', Caseres R. 🟨,
69', Iacobellis M. ↓, Menendez J. ↑,
69', Portillo A. ↓, Molina A. ↑,
70', Machuca I. ↓, Pizzini F. ↑,
70', Godoy D. ↓, Valdes D. ↑,
70', Lanzini M. ↓, Aliendro R. ↑,
77', Andrada I. ↓, Roldan L. ↑,
78', Salle S. 🟨,
81', Gonzalez S. ↓, Cavallaro J. ↑,
81', Salle S. ↓, Fernandez T. ↑,
90+7', Quiros A. 🟥,
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, San Martín won 3.
San Martín has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Vélez is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
San Martín may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
There will not play in San Martín: Fernandez T.
(Inactive)
Gonzalez F.
(Muscle Injury)
Pelaitay N.
(Inactive)
Watson N.
(Yellow Cards)
There will not play in Vélez: Andrada I.
(Lower Back Injury)
Braian Romero
(Muscle Injury)
Fernandez T.
(Knee Injury)
Garcia J.
(Broken ankle)
Lagos A.
(Red Card)
In the last 9 head-to-head matches, San Martín won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:16. (average 1.3:1.8).
Including home matches between the teams, San Martín won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:12. (average 1.7:1.7).
Last Results with these Odds
San Martín de San Juan - the odds 3.5 are the expected chance of winning is 26.61%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.
Vélez Sársfield - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 42.34%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.
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Borgogno M. (C) 
Montero A. (G) 
Baeza C. 
Machuca I. 
Pablo Garcia 
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